Andy Burnham faces an end-of-year nightmare if Britons suffer their most expensive Christmas ever. Food inflation is on course to jump to nearly 4% by Christmas – and then it will get worse, according to the Food and Drink Federation (FDF). It is forecast to peak at 6.4% in July.
The Prime Minister will soon discover that most families do not sit around the dinner table and compare GDP growth rates across the G7. They do, however, discuss the dread they feel about paying for the weekly shop.
Government blamed for rising costs
Newly installed Chancellor John Healey may insist that Britain is “turning a corner”, but if making ends meet becomes even more difficult, millions more Britons will conclude that the country is going in the wrong direction.
The Government cannot escape blame for soaring food costs by pointing to the Iran crisis and the summer heatwaves. The FDF is clear that inflation is also driven by energy, packaging and labour costs as well as the “tax and regulatory burden”.
In the months ahead, as Brits pay more for essentials and the odd luxury, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage will pillory Labour for forcing up the price of goods as a result of Rachel Reeves’s taxes and Left-wing decisions that make it harder to run a business.
Labour's record on living standards
At the start of the year, Sir Keir Starmer tried to save his premiership by focusing on the cost of living. Inside Downing Street, this was meant to be the “year of proof”. The then-PM promised that “the real Britain will shine through more strongly”.
The country and the party might have been more forgiving of Sir Keir if Britons felt they and their families were prospering under Labour rule. But in July, 56% of British adults reported an increase in the cost of living – with 94% saying the cost of food has gone up.
Labour did not look like it was on the side of farmers when the Government announced an inheritance tax raid, which triggered tractor protests in Whitehall. Mr Burnham urgently needs to mend relations with rural Britain, especially now that the country has woken up to the reality that food security is national security.
Voter backlash risks
And if the looming Autumn Budget is seen as yet another tax blitz, Britons will decide the country cannot afford another term of Labour in power.
It will take more than a volley of flash videos from the PM and the launch of No 10 North to convince them that better days are ahead. The challenge for Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch is to persuade the nation that they can somehow deliver a surge in family fortunes.
The days are long gone when households took rising living standards for granted. The Institute for Fiscal Studies noted in 2024 that before the Great Recession, it would have expected growth of 30% in a 13-year period – but average incomes rose by a mere 6% between 2009-10 and 2022-23. If voters give up hope that traditional parties will deliver a better country, they will give radical alternatives a hearing. The biggest danger for Mr Burnham is that Britons will look at Labour rivals and ask themselves: “Would they do any worse?”
