An exclusive new analysis has laid bare the staggering climate cost of potential US plans to exploit Venezuela's colossal oil reserves. The proposed expansion could, by itself, consume over a tenth of the world's remaining carbon budget to limit global heating to 1.5C, pushing the planet closer to climate catastrophe.
The Carbon Arithmetic of a Controversial Plan
According to modelling conducted for the Guardian by the carbon accounting firm ClimatePartner, ramping up Venezuela's oil production could have dire global consequences. The analysis modelled a scenario where production grows by +0.5 million barrels per day by 2028, increasing to +1.58 million barrels per day from 2035 to 2050.
This projected increase, which remains far below Venezuela's 1990s peak of 3.5 million barrels daily, would alone account for 13% of the total remaining carbon budget to stay within the critical 1.5C warming limit set by climate scientists. To put this in perspective, Hollie Parry, a senior analyst at ClimatePartner, stated this single oil expansion would equate to "nearly a decade of emissions from the entire European Union."
Why Venezuela's Oil is Exceptionally Dirty
The immense climate impact is magnified because Venezuela's crude is considered among the most carbon-intensive in the world. The nation's proven reserves, the largest globally on paper, contain a heavy, sour grade of oil with a tar-like consistency and high sulphur content.
Extracting and processing this dense crude requires far more energy than conventional, lighter oils. A study by S&P Global Platts Analytics found deposits in Venezuela's Orinoco belt have an "extreme" carbon intensity, far exceeding other major oil regions. For example, its carbon footprint is almost 1,000 times higher per barrel than oil from Norway's Johan Sverdrup field.
Political Moves and a Warming World
The analysis comes amid heightened geopolitical focus on Venezuela's resources. Following the recent detention and extradition of Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, to New York by US special forces, former US President Donald Trump has publicly urged oil giants to invest $100 billion to revitalise the country's crumbling oil infrastructure.
Trump told executives, "We're going to be extracting numbers in terms of oil like few people have seen." However, Venezuela's oil industry has been severely degraded by years of sanctions and underinvestment, making a rapid return to historic production levels a significant challenge.
Environmental campaigners have reacted with alarm. Mads Christensen, executive director of Greenpeace International, labelled the push for Venezuelan oil as "both reckless and dangerous," advocating instead for a just transition away from fossil fuels. The ClimatePartner report concludes that developing such a high-carbon resource is fundamentally at odds with global climate goals, locking in decades of emissions precisely when a swift shift to renewables is urgently needed.
