New North Sea Drilling Would Have Minimal Impact on UK Gas Imports, Research Finds
Opening major new oil and gas fields in the North Sea would make almost no difference to the United Kingdom's heavy reliance on imported gas, according to exclusive data analysis. The findings challenge claims that such projects could enhance energy security or reduce dependency on foreign supplies.
Jackdaw and Rosebank Fields Offer Limited Benefits
The Jackdaw field, one of the largest unexploited gas reserves in the North Sea, would displace only about 2% of the UK's current gas imports over its operational lifetime of nine to twelve years. Similarly, the Rosebank field, primarily containing oil, would reduce gas import dependency by just 1% on average. This means the UK would remain almost entirely dependent on supplies from Norway and other international sources.
Tessa Khan, executive director of the campaign group Uplift, which compiled the data from public sources, stated: "New fields like Jackdaw and Rosebank would do vanishingly little to boost UK gas production. Even in the most optimistic scenario, and assuming none of its gas is exported, Jackdaw would provide just 2% of UK demand."
Broader Implications for Energy Policy and Climate Goals
Authorities, including the UK Energy Research Centre, have previously shown that new drilling would not lower oil and gas prices or improve energy security. The industry is in steep decline, with 90% of North Sea reserves already consumed, and companies are seeking tax breaks to access harder-to-reach fields. Additionally, burning reserves from projects like Rosebank could lead the UK to breach its climate commitments.
Philip Evans, a senior climate campaigner at Greenpeace UK, emphasised: "Our fossil fuels are provided by a volatile global market which we cannot control, and is regularly upturned by reckless wars and blockades. The only path to real security is to leave fossil fuels behind as quickly as possible."
Political Pressure and Decision-Making Delays
Ed Miliband, the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, faces pressure from the fossil fuel industry, Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, some trade unions, and the Conservatives to approve Jackdaw and Rosebank. These fields are not covered by Labour's ban on new licences because their applications were submitted before the party took office.
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has expressed support for drilling but recently highlighted renewable power as a solution to oil crises at a G7 meeting. Miliband has not yet decided on the fields and is considering potential impacts. The UK is expected to join about 50 countries at a climate conference in Colombia later this month to discuss phasing out fossil fuels.
Adura Energy, owner of the Jackdaw field, has been asked by the North Sea regulator to address new questions on greenhouse gas emissions, potentially delaying any decision for weeks. Decisions on Jackdaw and Rosebank could be made separately.
Market Volatility and Household Struggles
Recent data from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition shows that oil and gas companies' valuations have surged due to conflicts, such as the war in Iran. For example, BP's market capitalisation increased by nearly a quarter, adding £17 billion, while Exxon Mobil saw a rise of about a fifth, or £87 billion. Shell and Chevron also experienced significant gains.
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, commented: "That is not a market working in the public interest, it is a market rewarding the companies whose products are driving up the bills that millions of households cannot afford to pay." He added that households are still recovering from energy bill hikes linked to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, leading to widespread energy debt and fuel poverty.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told the Guardian: "Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good long-term jobs."
