Concerns are mounting over potential fuel rationing in the UK as the European Union evaluates emergency measures in response to the escalating Middle East crisis. Dan Jorgensen, the EU's energy commissioner, has indicated that the bloc is preparing for "worst-case scenarios," including restrictions on jet fuel and diesel, should the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to disrupt global energy markets.
Long-Term Energy Price Surge Predicted
Jorgensen emphasised that this crisis is expected to be protracted, with energy prices likely to remain elevated for an extended period. He stated, "This will be a long crisis... energy prices will be higher for a very long time," adding that conditions may deteriorate further in the coming weeks. The commissioner's remarks come as Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf neighbours have sent shockwaves through international oil and gas markets, driving wholesale prices sharply higher.
UK Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
While the EU and UK have largely avoided direct supply disruptions—most imports originate from non-Middle Eastern countries like the US and Norway—the situation remains precarious. The primary concern centres on refined petroleum products, such as jet fuel and diesel. Although only about 1% of the UK's crude oil imports and 7% of its diesel come from the Middle East, the global ripple effects could impact industries reliant on these fuels.
Jorgensen clarified that the EU is not currently facing a supply security crisis but is proactively developing plans to address the "structural, long-term effects" of the conflict. He told the Financial Times, "We are looking at all possibilities," highlighting preparations that include potential rationing and the release of additional oil reserves.
Potential Knock-On Effects for the UK
Despite the UK's departure from the EU, Jorgensen's warnings have sparked anxiety about possible knock-on effects. Many UK industries depend heavily on fuel, and existing contingency plans could be activated in an emergency. These measures might involve imposing lower speed limits, implementing petrol rationing, and prioritising fuel for emergency services to prevent critical shortages.
Aviation Sector Under Pressure
The aviation industry is particularly vulnerable, with jet fuel supplies becoming a focal point of concern. Some airlines have already issued warnings about future availability, and at least one carrier has increased prices in response. Ryanair's CEO, Michael O'Leary, cautioned that if the Iran war continues to inflate jet fuel costs, the airline might need to cancel 5% to 10% of its flights during May, June, and July. He described the situation as "an unknown scenario" that requires careful monitoring.
Additionally, Aurigny, which operates flights between Guernsey and the UK, introduced a temporary £2 fuel surcharge on new bookings last month. Reports indicate that the most recent shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East to the UK arrived this week, underscoring the ongoing reliance on these supply routes.
Government and Industry Reassurances
In response to growing unease, the UK government has sought to reassure the public, stressing that there is no immediate cause for alarm. Official data from 2025 shows that UK refinery production of petrol exceeded domestic demand, with the majority of crude oil imports sourced from the US and Norway. Trade body Airlines UK affirmed on March 31 that UK airlines are not currently experiencing disruptions to jet fuel supply and are maintaining close engagement with fuel suppliers and government authorities to monitor developments.
However, the spectre of fuel rationing looms large as the Middle East crisis shows no signs of abating. With the EU actively considering drastic measures, the UK must remain vigilant to safeguard its energy security and mitigate potential impacts on households and businesses across the nation.
