China is expected to have more solar power capacity than coal for the first time in 2026, marking a 'historic' milestone in its energy transition, according to data released by a nonprofit on Monday. Installed solar capacity is projected to surpass coal after years of rapid expansion that have made China the world's largest solar market, despite continued reliance on coal for energy security.
By the end of the year, wind and solar combined are forecast to account for about half of China's total installed power capacity, while coal's share falls to around one-third, the China Electricity Council reported. However, the crossover does not mean China will generate more electricity from solar than coal immediately, as installed capacity measures potential output under ideal conditions, whereas coal plants operate continuously.
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at green group 350.org, called the shift a 'historic inflection point', stating it is 'proof that clean energy has won on cost, scale, and air quality', but noted that continued coal additions make China's energy politics 'impressive but schizophrenic'. Others caution that the capacity crossover is symbolic, as coal still generates about 3.5 times more electricity than solar due to higher capacity factors.
Solar capacity stood at about 1,200 gigawatts at the end of 2025, growing at an average of 270GW per year over the past three years, while coal capacity is expected to reach about 1,333GW by the end of 2026. Total generating capacity is forecast to increase by over 400GW this year. The expansion of clean energy in China and India has already led to a decline in coal-fired power generation in both countries in 2025, the first simultaneous drop in half a century.
Despite rapid renewable growth, China continues to add coal capacity, with 78GW brought online in 2025 following power shortages in 2021-2022. However, analysts note that coal's role is shifting from baseload to flexibility and regulation, with China leading in battery storage deployment. Critics warn that nearly 290GW of coal already permitted or under construction could delay emissions reductions if plants run more often than planned.
