A report by the National Energy System Operator (Neso), released quietly on budget day, warns of an emerging risk to UK gas supply security. The 50-page assessment finds that if the single largest piece of gas infrastructure were to fail during a prolonged cold spell, gas supply would fall short of demand in all modelled pathways for 2030-31.
The most critical piece of infrastructure is the 725-mile Langeled pipeline from Norway, which is vulnerable to state-sponsored sabotage, as seen with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosion in 2022. Emergency measures would first involve telling factories and power plants to stop using gas, and in extreme scenarios, households could be affected, potentially leading to a government-toppling event.
Energy minister Michael Shanks promised to do “whatever it takes” to ensure secure supplies, but the report's suggested mitigations are neither quick nor cheap. Options include expanding LNG import terminals, increasing interconnector capacity with Europe, and investing in storage, such as Centrica's Rough facility, which is not being used this winter due to a lack of financial support from the government.
Domestic North Sea production is declining, partly due to the energy profits levy, and Norway may be at its supply limit. Even the government's Clean Power 2030 plan retains 35 GW of gas power capacity as backup for cold, still winter periods when renewables are not generating.
