Energy bills for households in Great Britain are predicted to rise by more than £200 a year to nearly £1,900 from this summer, according to new analysis. Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy, expects the typical annual gas and electricity bill to reach £1,850 from July under Ofgem's quarterly price cap.
The forecast level is almost 13% higher than the current cap of £1,641 set for April to June, adding £209 to a typical annual bill. The main driver is rising wholesale energy prices, which climbed sharply in February and March after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off Gulf energy supplies to the global market in response to US-Israeli strikes.
A temporary ceasefire allowed markets to retreat from the historic highs of March, when Cornwall estimated the cap could reach nearly £2,000 a year. However, market prices have remained much higher than usual, compounding pressure on households already facing rising costs for essentials such as council tax and water.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer postponed the planned 5p rise in fuel duty "for the rest of the year", and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce further measures on Thursday to address the rising cost of living. Cornwall warned that even if the Iran war ended immediately, physical damage to infrastructure and disrupted supply mean a fall back to April's price cap levels in autumn looks unlikely.
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said that if the cap remains at a similar level in July, "that is when the government will need to think seriously about targeted support for the most vulnerable." Danny Gross, an energy campaigner at Friends of the Earth, described the rise as "a kick in the teeth" for millions struggling with the cost of living, and called for rapid rollout of clean renewable energy and home insulation.
In the short term, switching websites have urged households to consider fixed-rate energy deals. According to uSwitch, several fixed tariffs currently undercut the predicted July price cap, potentially saving money on summer and winter bills. A government spokesperson said: "Tackling the affordability crisis is our No 1 priority. The lesson of yet another fossil fuel crisis is the UK needs to get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster and on to clean homegrown power we control."
