New analysis has revealed a startling demographic shift in the United States, where the population of young children has fallen to a historic low. The nation's fertility rate now sits at just 1.6 children per woman in 2024, a figure significantly below the replacement level and marking a dramatic departure from the post-war baby boom era.
The Unexpected Epicentre of Decline
Perhaps the most surprising finding from the Realtor.com study, which compared US Census data from 2010 to 2024, is the location of the sharpest falls. Contrary to its family-friendly reputation, the state of Utah is at the forefront of this decline. Five of the largest drops in the share of under-five-year-olds were found in Utah metros.
Logan, Ogden, Provo, and St. George each saw their under-five population share fall by 3.2 percent, with Salt Lake City close behind at a 3.1 percent decrease. This is a stark reversal from 2010, when these same areas boasted some of the highest shares of young children in the nation, at around 9.8 percent compared to a 6.5 percent national average.
What's Driving the Demographic Shift?
Experts point to a confluence of two primary factors behind the shrinking share of toddlers and infants. Firstly, societal trends show women are choosing to have fewer children and at a later age, which naturally reduces the proportion of young children in any given population.
Secondly, and critically in Western states like Utah, there has been a significant influx of new residents. A wave of working-age professionals and retirees moving to the region for its scenic landscapes, lower housing costs, and tax perks has swelled the overall population. This migration dilutes the percentage of under-fives, even if local birth rates remain steady.
This pattern is echoed beyond Utah. Smaller Western cities like Grand Junction, Colorado, and Carson City, Nevada, have experienced some of the most severe declines. Grand Junction's under-five share plummeted from 6.6 percent in 2010 to just 3.6 percent in 2024, ranking it among the lowest in the entire dataset.
Broader Implications and Notable Exceptions
The nationwide decline in young children has profound implications, not least for the housing market. The National Association of Realtors notes that the typical first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old, with millennials comprising only 29 percent of buyers. This affordability crisis is seen as a major factor influencing family planning decisions and, consequently, birth rates.
Amid the widespread drop, a handful of communities defy the trend. Most notably, Kokomo, Indiana, saw its under-five share rise a full percentage point, from 5.4 percent to 6.4 percent. Local reports suggest revitalisation efforts—including new housing, expanded parks, walkable streets, and improved public transport—have helped retain young families. Other small gains were noted in Charlottesville, Virginia, and Decatur and Gadsden, Alabama.
In contrast, major urban centres tell a different story. Manhattan, for instance, lost a staggering 92,000 children under five between 2020 and 2023, a 17 percent decline, as median rents soared by 30 percent. The data paints a clear picture of a nation where the pitter-patter of tiny feet is becoming increasingly rare, reshaping communities and economies in its wake.
