The United Kingdom faces a heightened risk of jet fuel rationing due to shortages linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs. The bank warned that the UK, as Europe's largest net importer of jet fuel, holds no strategic reserves and relies heavily on commercial inventories, which could fall to critically low levels.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the global jet fuel market, with prices doubling since the war began on February 28. Airlines including KLM and Lufthansa have already cancelled flights, and industry figures warn that further disruptions are likely. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.
Goldman Sachs noted that the UK's limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity make it especially vulnerable. The closure of the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland last April has reduced domestic supply, while the Prax Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire faces uncertainty, though its new owner Phillips 66 said the acquisition should help stabilise supply.
Fuel suppliers have warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe regarding jet fuel supply, largely due to its dependence on Middle Eastern imports. The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, preparing for multiple scenarios. A government spokesperson stated that UK airlines are not currently seeing a shortage, but acknowledged ongoing work with fuel suppliers and international counterparts to keep flights operating.
Analysts also pointed to Europe's climate-focused energy policies as contributing to higher prices and increased import dependence. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned that travellers may need to rethink holiday plans, while IAG, parent company of British Airways, indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel costs. Fuel accounts for up to a quarter of airline operating costs, and carriers such as Air France and American Airlines expect significant increases in their fuel bills this year.
