The Met Office has issued its verdict on how the 2026 El Nino will affect the UK, warning that the weather phenomenon is an "unprecedented event" expected to reach its peak in winter. This could cause wetter and stormier conditions across Europe over the coming months.
The UK forecaster said: "The El Niño is now growing towards its peak in winter, and the impacts will affect not only the tropics but also the mid latitudes and so southern Africa and north-east Australia are expected to be at heightened risk of drought."
"Closer to the UK, we expect the influence of El Niño to start to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for NW Europe, including the UK, in the coming autumn and early winter."
What is El Nino?
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The phenomenon is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather.
The effects of El Nino often peak during December. Its name "the boy" is thought to have originated as "El Nino de Navidad" centuries ago when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ.
The forecaster said El Nino can affect the rest of the world. It said: "Our research helped show that the El Nino and La Nina cycle has impacts all over the world. For example, El Nino years are one factor that can increase the risk of colder winters in the UK."
2026 'super' El Nino
Forecasters are warning the 2026 "super El Nino" could be the strongest on record. The phenomenon is causing extreme weather globally, bringing unprecedented heat, droughts, and altered storm patterns.
This also means that milder weather is expected going forward. Sharing how El Nino will affect weather in the UK, the Met Office said: "El Niño can increase the likelihood of wetter, stormier and generally milder conditions in the UK during late autumn and early winter."
Dr Nick Dunstone said El Nino will not only affect autumn and winter, but it could lead to a change in weather conditions in 2027. Dr Dunstone said: "During large El Niño events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño."
"Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period".
Professor Stephen Belcher is the Met Office's chief of science and technology. He said: "This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change."
'Stock up'
People have been told to "stock up" on supplies as the long-term effects of El Nino are yet to be confirmed. The government website shared advice due to the change in weather patterns.
It said: "Secondary effects of El Nino on global food supply chains have the potential to reduce yields and drive up prices, particularly in regions with already low food security."
The UK could experience higher prices for products such as rice, and certain tropical commodities (for example: cocoa, coffee) but the precise effects remain difficult to predict.
"Changing weather patterns caused by El Nino could increase global demand for liquified natural gas (LNG), placing additional pressure on a global market already facing uncertainty from the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts."
"The UK currently has a sufficient energy buffer for the coming winter but the effects of El Nino remain uncertain: Europe could be particularly vulnerable to rising prices and increased global competition for energy supplies, such as LNG."
