The UK Met Office has warned that a powerful El Niño event is developing in the Pacific Ocean, with a potential to become a 'Super El Niño' of record strength. Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said the event could be 'even of record strength' and that experts are 'very confident' a big event is coming.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects a 63 per cent likelihood that this El Niño will rank among the largest since 1950. United Nations secretary-general António Guterres described it as an 'urgent climate warning' that will 'pour fuel on the fire of a warming world'.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving warming of surface ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It disrupts trade winds and upwelling, causing global weather shifts. In the UK, the effect is usually weaker but can lead to more extreme weather: colder winters, especially later in the season, and hotter summers.
Professor Bill McGuire of University College London said summer temperatures could be impacted, possibly this year but more likely next, and added: 'I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see 40°C-plus heat.' A Super El Niño is defined as sea surface temperatures more than 2°C above normal, compared to 0.5°C for a regular El Niño.
Ocean warming has been rapid and is expected to peak in autumn. Lancaster University's Crucial lab predicts over 85 per cent chance of El Niño conditions this winter and around 45 per cent chance of Super El Niño conditions. The extreme conditions typically last two to four months.
