The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has issued a profound apology after committing what it describes as the most serious operational failure in its 15-year history. The independent fiscal watchdog mistakenly published its crucial Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) report almost a full hour before Chancellor Rachel Reeves began delivering her Budget statement to the House of Commons.
A Major Breach of Protocol
The sensitive document, containing the OBR's official economic forecasts and analysis, was intended for release strictly in coordination with the Treasury's own Red Book. The Red Book, which details the government's tax and spending plans, is published the moment the Chancellor finishes her speech. This synchronised release is a cornerstone of Budget day procedure, designed to ensure markets and the public receive information in a controlled and fair manner.
The premature publication on Monday 1st December 2025, just before 15:00 GMT, threw this careful timetable into disarray. The leak meant detailed forecasts on growth, borrowing, and debt were publicly available while the Chancellor was still addressing MPs, a situation with clear potential to disrupt financial markets and undermine the impact of her statement.
Immediate Investigation and Fallout
OBR Chair Richard Hughes immediately ordered an internal investigation into the cause of the significant blunder. In a statement, the OBR did not mince words, labelling the incident 'the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR.' It acknowledged the error was seriously disruptive to the Chancellor and the Treasury's carefully laid plans for the day.
Despite the profound embarrassment and operational breakdown, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has publicly affirmed her continued support for Richard Hughes and the institution of the OBR itself. This backing is seen as crucial for maintaining the credibility of the independent watchdog, which was established to provide objective analysis of the public finances.
Leadership Under Scrutiny
While the Chancellor's support remains firm, the damning nature of the OBR's own assessment points to significant internal scrutiny. The investigation led by Hughes will need to pinpoint the exact chain of events that led to the early publication, likely focusing on digital protocols and human oversight. The incident raises immediate questions about the resilience of the OBR's publication processes, especially on days of high national importance.
The fallout from this unprecedented leak is set to dominate Westminster discussion, with calls for assurances that such a breach can never happen again. The integrity of the Budget process relies on strict confidentiality, and this event represents a stark failure in upholding that principle.
