Chancellor Rachel Reeves will not face a formal verdict on whether she is meeting the government's own spending rules when the Treasury's independent watchdog publishes its next economic forecast.
Spring Forecast Date Set
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will deliver its economic and fiscal forecast on Tuesday, March 3. This fulfils the legal requirement under the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 for the independent body to produce at least two forecasts each financial year.
However, in a statement laid before Parliament, Ms Reeves confirmed this Spring update will not include an assessment of the government's performance against its fiscal mandate. This is the rule requiring the government to balance the books.
A Departure from Typical Scrutiny
This move marks a significant shift from the usual process. Following the turbulence around last November's Budget, the Chancellor has instructed the OBR to provide only an interim update on the economy and public finances, withholding the formal judgement on fiscal rules.
This could provide political breathing room for Ms Reeves. If the economic data on March 3 is worse than hoped, the absence of a formal assessment means she will not be immediately compelled to find more revenue or implement spending cuts to stay on track.
Uncertainty Over Parliamentary Response
The statement also leaves open the question of how the government will respond. It notes that ministers intend to reply with a statement to Parliament but does not confirm if Ms Reeves will deliver this in person in the Commons or issue a written response.
The timing adds to the unusual nature of the event. Fiscal statements are traditionally delivered on Wednesdays, but the OBR forecast is scheduled for a Tuesday.
Stability Pledge Cited
Defending the approach, the Chancellor told MPs it aligns with her commitment to hold one major fiscal event per year at the Autumn Budget.
"This approach gives families and businesses the stability and certainty they need and, in turn, to support the government's growth mission," Ms Reeves stated.
The OBR's previous forecast in November 2025 triggered market uncertainty, leading to this revised plan for the Spring update. All eyes will now be on the economic picture painted on March 3, even without the formal verdict on the Chancellor's fiscal discipline.
