The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has declared it must take "immediate steps to change completely" how it publishes sensitive economic forecasts, following a significant leak ahead of last week's Budget.
Technical Failures Behind the Premature Release
An investigation, supported by former National Cyber Security Centre head Professor Ciaran Martin, found the early release of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) was not intentional. Instead, it was caused by two configuration errors on the WordPress platform used for publishing.
The report, published on Monday 1 December 2025, stated the watchdog mistakenly assumed WordPress's protections would prevent access to files, even though their web addresses followed a predictable pattern. This technical failure led to the Budget analysis being available on the OBR's website almost an hour before Chancellor Rachel Reeves finished her speech.
A 'Worst Failure' in the Watchdog's History
In the report's foreword, non-executive members Baroness Sarah Hogg and Dame Susan Rice called the incident the "worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR." They noted it was seriously disruptive to the Chancellor, who expected the document to remain private until she sat down.
OBR chair Richard Hughes has issued profound apologies for the error, which was deemed the most serious since the body's creation by former Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2010. The report also revealed the forecast for the Spring Statement in March was "accessed prematurely" on one prior occasion, though this was likely benign.
Proposed Solutions and the Path to Regaining Trust
To prevent future leaks and rebuild trust, the report recommends a full review of publication processes. It outlines two potential solutions for handling the biannual forecasts:
- Moving the OBR's publishing operations to the Government's independent digital subdomain, while retaining control over timing.
- Handing publication of the Budget and Spring Statement forecasts directly to the Treasury, provided strict safeguards for the OBR's "real and perceived independence" are established.
The review insists that new, secure arrangements must be implemented in time for the next Spring Statement in 2026. A Treasury spokesperson acknowledged the report, stating the Chief Secretary to the Treasury would respond in due course.
