Japan is on the brink of a severe demographic catastrophe, with experts warning that the country could lose nearly one million people annually by the 2040s due to plummeting birth rates and an ageing population.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) projects that Japan's population, currently around 124 million, will shrink dramatically, with deaths far outpacing births. This imbalance could destabilise the economy, strain public services, and reshape the nation's social fabric.
Why Is Japan's Population Collapsing?
Several factors contribute to this crisis:
- Record-low birth rates: Japan's fertility rate stands at just 1.3 children per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Ageing society: Over 29% of the population is aged 65 or older, increasing pressure on healthcare and pensions.
- Economic pressures: High living costs and job insecurity discourage young couples from having children.
- Cultural shifts: More people are delaying marriage or opting out of parenthood altogether.
The Economic and Social Fallout
If current trends continue, Japan's workforce will shrink, threatening productivity and economic growth. The government may struggle to fund pensions and healthcare for the elderly, while rural areas face depopulation and labour shortages.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called the situation "the biggest crisis Japan faces", but policies to encourage childbirth—such as childcare subsidies—have so far failed to reverse the decline.
Can Japan Reverse the Trend?
Experts suggest urgent measures, including:
- Expanding financial support for families.
- Reforming work culture to improve work-life balance.
- Encouraging immigration to supplement the workforce.
Without drastic action, Japan's demographic time bomb could trigger long-term decline, setting a cautionary example for other ageing societies worldwide.
