The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has warned that soaring temperatures and droughts across the UK and Europe are set to drive prices higher. The trade group said “fruit, vegetable and grain supply” are being hit by recent heatwaves, with crop shortages expected to feed into supermarket prices.
Upward pressure on inflation
Economists from the FDF suggested that this will put upward pressure on food inflation going into 2027. The supply of a number of UK-grown fruit and vegetables, such as broccoli and cherries, has already come under pressure. Meanwhile, poor grain harvests are driving the cost of animal feed higher, with predictions that this could lead to more expensive meat as farmers reduce herd sizes.
Fresh heatwave forecast
The warning comes ahead of a fresh heatwave in the UK, with the Met Office forecasting temperatures to soar to the mid-30s in some areas on Thursday. Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF, said the weather conditions have caused concern across most of Europe.
She said: “Competition for fewer resources will in turn push up the price of ingredients for manufacturers. The UK’s food and drink manufacturers work hard to absorb costs where they can, but are already grappling with rising costs as a result of war in Ukraine and in Iran, so we expect the additional upward pressure of reduced crops will be reflected in retail prices into next year.”
Impact on milk and retail
FDF Scotland’s David Thomson also told the BBC that price rises are “inevitable” because of “significant concerns” over the availability of many fruit and vegetable products. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (ADHB) has said that milk production has already been impacted by the extreme hot weather, with yields affected by heat-stressed cows and poor conditions for grass grazing.
Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability policy at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Climate change continues to create challenges for retailers and their suppliers. Extreme weather, including drought, can affect crop yields and place upward pressure on prices. Retailers are experienced in managing supply disruptions and will take all necessary steps, including sourcing from alternative suppliers where appropriate, to minimise any impact on customers.”
