Food prices in the UK are on track to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The thinktank found that climate and energy shocks have nearly quadrupled the pace of food price growth, with costs rising over five years at roughly the same rate as the previous two decades.
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, warned that such rapid price increases leave low-income families with no choice but to cut back on food, leading to skipped meals, child hunger, and rising diet-related illness. This, she said, puts pressure on the NHS and takes parents out of work.
The ECIU report highlights that beef prices have risen 64% and olive oil more than doubled since 2018, while pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, and eggs are at least 50% more expensive. These increases reflect sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts like droughts, floods, and heatwaves in the UK and key import regions.
Household food bills rose by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, the report found, with five climate-affected foods—butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee—driving much of the continued inflation. The Bank of England has predicted food inflation could reach 7% by the end of the year due to higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs.
Chris Jaccarini, an ECIU food and farming analyst, said the war in the Middle East is likely to push shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike, while scientists predict 2027 could be the hottest year on record. He noted that three of England's worst harvests in the past five years have compounded the crisis.
