As inflation surges on the back of rising energy costs stemming from President Trump’s confrontation with Iran, American voters are delivering their harshest verdict yet on the state of the economy. According to the latest Daily Mail/JL Partners poll, 59 percent of voters now say the economy is getting worse, marking a three-point increase from the previous month.
Only 19 percent of those surveyed in May believe the United States is experiencing economic improvement under Trump’s leadership. The President’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway responsible for one-fifth of all global oil trade—has driven average US gas prices to $4.50 per gallon. In response, Iran has sought to close the strait by seizing US-backed oil tankers using speedboats and striking them with explosive drones.
Voters are feeling the financial strain, with nearly half—48 percent—reporting that recent gas price increases have either somewhat or significantly eroded their savings. Twenty-six percent indicate a significant impact, while 15 percent say fuel costs have slightly diminished their savings. Another 22 percent report that their savings remain untouched. Alarmingly, 12 percent of voters state they have no savings at all.
Trump faces a looming threat: 18 percent of voters say they will exhaust their savings in less than a month if gas prices remain at current levels. Adding the 16 percent who expect to run out within one to three months, roughly a third of the country is confronting a three-month financial cliff tied to the economic fallout from the President’s military actions in Iran.
The political cost of rising pump prices is landing squarely on Trump’s desk, as 54 percent of voters hold him responsible. American oil and gas companies came in a distant second at 36 percent, followed by the Iranian government at 31 percent. Trump’s overall approval rating remains steady from April at 43 percent, while 57 percent of voters disapprove.
The Daily Mail/JL Partners poll surveyed 1,003 registered voters online from May 15 to 18, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent. Trump famously returned to the Oval Office after the 2024 election in part due to voter frustration with Democrats’ handling of the economy and the belief that he could ease their financial anxieties. Now, the economy is shaping up to be one of his toughest issues as the GOP heads into the midterm elections.
Trump has revealed that he aborted a full-scale attack on Iran at the eleventh hour, ordering US forces to stand down only after Middle Eastern leaders personally intervened to plead for one last chance at a nuclear deal. Oil prices remained elevated even hours after Trump signaled that a peace deal could be imminent. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell from $112 per barrel to $109 per barrel on the news.
Whether Trump can turn the page by lowering fuel costs through reopening the Strait of Hormuz may determine how Republicans fare in the midterms.
