An expert has warned that the state pension triple lock will be scrapped under a future Prime Minister Andy Burnham, issuing a "wake-up call" to Britons. Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group, said the policy is becoming unsustainable due to an ageing population, rising healthcare costs, and mounting debt.
Triple Lock Under Threat
The triple lock ensures the state pension increases annually by the highest of average weekly earnings, inflation, or 2.5%. However, Green argued that economic realities will force change. "The triple lock has become politically untouchable, but economics has a habit of catching up with politics. I don’t believe the question is whether it eventually changes. The question is when," he said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the triple lock will cost £15.5 billion a year by 2029–30. Green added: "Every Prime Minister and Chancellor will be looking for room to manoeuvre, and the state pension will inevitably be part of that conversation."
Expert Predicts Scrapping in Next Parliament
Green suggested Burnham may honour the commitment during this Parliament but will face enormous pressure to rethink it in the next. "Fiscal arithmetic doesn’t negotiate. If the government wants to preserve spending elsewhere without imposing ever-higher taxes, every major spending commitment comes under scrutiny," he said.
He warned that retirement planning based on current promises is risky: "History shows that no policy guarantee lasts forever. Governments adapt to changing economic conditions."
Defenders Call Claims 'Nonsense'
However, Dennis Reed, director of Silver Voices, dismissed the idea that the triple lock is unaffordable. "All this is political choices, and it just so happens that people are picking out the state pension and pensioners, as to the reasons why we're in the economic malaise that we're in, which is obviously not the case at all," he said.
Reed argued that billions of pounds are available elsewhere: "If you look around, there are plenty of big profits being made by internet giants and banks and energy companies. They seem to be sort of like rolling in cash. So, it wears a bit thin when it's said that an older person on £185 a week state pension ought to be propping up the economy, when there's all those billions washing around somewhere else."
Express Campaign to Protect Pensioners
The Express is campaigning to keep the triple lock, noting that most pensioners have a fixed income and millions of over-66s rely on the state pension as their main source of money for essentials. The state pension was introduced in 1906 as part of the Liberal government's welfare reforms.
