Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election has set the stage for another major electoral contest in Greater Manchester. After nearly a decade as the region's mayor, Burnham secured a seat in Parliament, defeating Reform UK's Rob Kenyon by a significant margin.
New Election Date Set
The role of Greater Manchester mayor, which elevated Burnham's national profile and helped him build a powerful base across the city-region, now falls vacant. An election to find his successor has been scheduled for July 30.
Burnham first won the mayoralty in 2017 with 63% of the vote and was re-elected twice, in 2021 and 2024, comfortably ahead of his rivals. However, the upcoming election is expected to be the most competitive yet, with other parties eyeing the position.
Changing Political Landscape
Burnham's departure to Westminster, where he is seen as a potential challenger to Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, leaves Labour facing a tough battle to retain the mayoralty. Recent local elections in May saw significant gains for Reform UK and the Green Party across Greater Manchester, signaling a more fragmented political landscape.
Additionally, a new voting system will be used. The supplementary vote method, introduced on June 18 under the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Act, allows voters to choose first and second preferences. If no candidate secures over 50% in the first round, the top two proceed to a second round where second preferences are counted.
Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester suggested this change could disadvantage Reform UK, as left and right blocs may exchange second preferences, potentially aiding Labour. Reform UK has criticized the move as a "cynical attempt" to favor Labour, while Labour has not commented.
Candidates in the Running
Conservatives
Nadim Muslim, leader of Bolton Conservatives and chair of Greater Manchester Conservatives, is a potential candidate. He is a Bolton councillor with regional connections and leadership experience.
Green Party
Three names have been put forward: Geraldine Coggins, leader of the Green group on Trafford council; Laurence Blackwell-Jones, co-founder of Greater Manchester Tenants Union; and Ashley Trigg from Wigan and Leigh. Coggins is considered the favorite due to her extensive experience.
Labour
Bev Craig, leader of Manchester council since 2021, is the likely candidate. She has been involved in GMCA matters during Burnham's campaign. Salford mayor Paul Dennett, previously considered a contender, will not stand.
Liberal Democrats
Richard Kilpatrick, a Didsbury councillor on the Greater Manchester Police, Fire and Crime Panel, is expected to be the candidate. The Lib Dems have strong support in areas like Stockport.
Reform UK
Dan Barker, the party's 2024 mayoral candidate, is a potential choice. Councillor Sian Astley, leader of Reform UK on Manchester council, has also been mentioned but stated her focus remains on her Baguley ward.
Restore Britain
Marlon West, a child exploitation campaigner, is rumored to be the candidate. He recently campaigned for Restore Britain in Makerfield.
