A "super El Nino" has emerged in 2026, with forecasters warning it could be the strongest on record. The global weather phenomenon is causing extreme weather worldwide, bringing unprecedented heat, droughts, and altered storm patterns.
El Nino occurs every few years in correlation with the warming of the sea surface temperature. Its effects often peak during December, with the 2026 El Nino looking to be particularly significant.
What is El Nino?
According to the Met Office, an El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The phenomenon is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific, with warmer than average weather.
The name "the boy" is thought to have originated as "El Nino de Navidad" centuries ago, when Peruvian fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ. The effects of El Nino are visible across the world, associated with widespread changes in the climate system.
The Met Office said it can lead to significant human impacts affecting things such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy sectors. The forecaster said El Nino can affect the rest of the world.
"Our research helped show that the El Nino and La Nina cycle has impacts all over the world. For example, El Nino years are one factor that can increase the risk of colder winters in the UK," the Met Office said.
"El Nino is also thought to limit development of tropical storms in the North Atlantic, likewise La Nina can enhance development. We now better understand these impacts and reproduce many of them in our climate models."
What does it mean for weather in the UK?
A significant El Nino is likely to occur towards the end of 2026, with direct effects felt across the globe. It may increase extreme weather conditions in India, East Asia, South America, parts of Africa and the West Pacific.
However, the Met Office said UK weather could be "milder than normal" over the autumn and winter months. The government website states UK weather systems tend to be less directly affected by El Nino. But given the potentially unprecedented nature of this El Nino, these effects are uncertain.
The Met Office said El Nino could increase the chances of "wetter and stormier" weather. It said: "The current El Nino is unprecedented in terms of its strength at present and various seasonal modelling centres predict further strengthening over the next couple of months, with a predicted peak in November of December."
"For the UK, El Nino increases the chances of a wetter and stormier late autumn and early winter period, which would also likely be milder than normal."
People urged to 'stock up'
People have been told to "stock up" on supplies ahead of the winter. The government website shared advice due to the change in weather patterns.
It said: "Secondary effects of El Nino on global food supply chains have the potential to reduce yields and drive up prices, particularly in regions with already low food security."
"The UK could experience higher prices for products such as rice, and certain tropical commodities (for example: cocoa, coffee) but the precise effects remain difficult to predict."
Changing weather patterns caused by El Nino could increase global demand for liquified natural gas (LNG), placing additional pressure on a global market already facing uncertainty from the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
"The UK currently has a sufficient energy buffer for the coming winter but the effects of El Nino remain uncertain: Europe could be particularly vulnerable to rising prices and increased global competition for energy supplies, such as LNG."
