Forecasters are warning Brits of a potentially wetter, windier and stormier autumn as El Nino threatens to disrupt weather patterns across the world.
The chances of the UK seeing a warmer and wetter meteorological autumn are about one-and-a-half to two times higher than normal, the Met Office says. Forecasters are also warning of a greater likelihood of windy conditions later in the season.
El Nino at record levels
El Nino happens when sea temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual, disrupting weather patterns around the world. The current El Nino is already at record levels, the Met Office said, with forecasters indicating that one of the strongest ever events on record could develop.
Historically, El Nino events have been linked to warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter. But, the weather phenomenon is one of several climate drivers that can influence the UK's weather and - so does not determine exactly what conditions the UK is likely to experience, the forecaster said.
Increased flood risk
The forecaster added that an increased likelihood of wetter and windier than normal conditions does come with an increased risk of impacts such as flooding.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Ian Lisk, said: "The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events."
"However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK's weather and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK."
"We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves."
Drought continues
It comes as officials said almost three quarters of England remain in drought despite recent rain, as the country continues to battle its third drought in five years.
While rain has turned the grass green again, and it would be "understandable" to think the drought was over, the Environment Agency said there was still a very long way to go, with concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.
