Scientists have warned that the rapid intensification of Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to become one of the strongest storms to hit Jamaica, is likely a symptom of the warming of the world's oceans. The storm escalated from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in just one day, with winds surging from 70mph to 140mph, marking one of the fastest intensifications on record in the Atlantic Ocean.
On Monday, the US National Hurricane Center upgraded Melissa to a category 5 storm, with winds of up to 160mph. The hurricane is slowly moving towards Jamaica, where it is feared it will cause catastrophic flooding and landslides, before crossing Cuba and the Bahamas by Wednesday. This is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification, a phenomenon linked to the human-caused climate crisis.
“That part of the Atlantic is extremely warm right now – around 30C, which is 2 to 3C above normal,” said Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading. “And it’s not just the surface. The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, providing a vast reservoir of energy for the storm.” Last year, the world's oceans were the warmest on record, continuing a trend of record-breaking marine heat.
Climate Central has stated that the extra heat in the Atlantic has been made about 700 times more likely due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation. “Climate change is fundamentally changing our weather,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central. “In our warmer world, it will continue to increase the likelihood of storms going through rapid and super-rapid intensification.”
A 2023 study found that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to intensify rapidly from minor storms to catastrophic events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 13 to 18 named storms, which has been largely accurate so far.
