Weather forecasting models suggest heatwave conditions could return to the UK for three days in early September, with temperatures possibly reaching 29C, despite thunderstorms bringing heavy rain this week.
The Met Office has issued a thunderstorm warning covering England and Wales today, with some regions facing power cuts, lightning, floods and three inches of rain. Temperatures should still hit 28C but will drop into the low-20s for the rest of this week.
Three days of heat expected
The GFS weather model shows temperatures possibly rising to 28C again in southern and western England on September 5, with 28C highs on the cards more widely - as far north as Yorkshire - on September 6.
Temperatures could then hit 29C in eastern and western England on September 7, with 27-28C highs possible quite widely across central and southern areas. Although these temperatures aren’t as scorching as those already seen this year, this would still constitute an official heatwave in some areas.
Heatwave threshold explained
The Met Office declares an official heatwave when temperatures hit the ‘heatwave threshold’ three days in a row. The threshold stands at 28C in the south-east, where conditions tend to be warmer, and drops to 25C the further away from the south-east you go.
Temperature anomaly maps for this period show England and Wales shaded in areas of red and orange, indicating where temperatures will rise well above the seasonal average.
Met Office forecast for early September
The Met Office has said “very warm spells” are on the cards at the start of September, especially in southern areas. However, plenty of rain is also expected.
The Met Office forecast for August 31 to September 9 states: “Likely remaining unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain across all areas at times. Rainfall amounts will probably be above average for the time year with the wettest conditions in the northwest.
“Potential for some strong winds at times. Some drier and more settled interludes could develop, perhaps becoming longer in duration across southern areas later in this period. Temperatures are likely to be near average, although some short-lived warm or very warm spells are possible, especially in the south.”
