Russian aerial drones penetrated the airspace of Moldova and Romania on August 20, and a naval drone was destroyed near a natural gas platform in the latter, according to the Institute of the Study of War (ISW). The incidents demonstrate that the Kremlin has "accepted the risk that its war against Ukraine will cause damage to other states, including NATO states," the ISW said in its August 20 report on the invasion of Ukraine.
Drone Incursions into Moldovan and Romanian Airspace
The Moldovan Ministry of Defence reported that a likely Russian Shahed-136/Geran-2-type drone entered the country's airspace near Kotlovyna, Odesa Oblast, and flew for six minutes. It then departed for Ukrainian airspace near Etilua, Gagauzia, roughly six kilometers from the Ukrainian border, on the morning of August 20, the ISW wrote. Moldova is not a NATO member.
The Romanian Ministry of National Defence said a drone of "unspecified origin" crashed in an uninhabited area four kilometers northeast of Grindu, Tulcea County, roughly five kilometers from the Ukrainian border, on the same morning, causing a fire. Officials added that a Romanian F-16 fighter jet destroyed a naval drone about 80 miles east of Constanta, along the Black Sea coast, roughly 116 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, near the Neptune Deep natural gas platform.
Experts Assess Kremlin Intent
The ISW wrote: "Romanian authorities did not specify the origin of the naval drone, but Romanian Defense Minister Radu-Dinel Miruță stated that the naval drone was not Ukrainian."
"Such incidents are likely an intended consequence of Russian strike packages that now take Russian unmanned systems so close to the airspace or waters of NATO states and Moldova that the drones regularly cross these boundaries."
Moldovan President Maia Sandu said on August 18 that the Kremlin deliberately launches some of its drones into Moldovan and NATO airspace and that intent can be assessed based on their trajectory.
Normalization and Risk of Wider Conflict
Experts added: "ISW is unable to confirm the intent of Russian drone incursions into the airspace of other states, but the net effect of these incidents normalizes the incursion of Russian weapons into and damage within Moldovan and NATO territory."
"Russian forces could prevent such violations of other states’ sovereign airspace and waters by redesigning their strike packages and moving strike vehicle trajectories away from NATO and Moldovan territory. That Russian forces have not adjusted their strike campaigns, along with the increasing frequency of these incidents, indicates that the Kremlin intends to normalize these violations against NATO."
It is feared that a wider conflict could be triggered by a Russian strike on a NATO member, as Article 5 of the treaty dictates that an attack on one is an attack on all.
