All four penalty shootouts at the 2026 Women's World Cup have been won by the team that went second, continuing a striking trend. According to Opta Analyst, 13 of the past 15 shootouts at World Cups (both men's and women's) have been won by the team taking the second penalty, a rate of 86.7%. The only exceptions were Morocco's victory over Spain and Croatia's win against Brazil in the 2022 men's World Cup.
Historical Data Shows Shift
Before this recent streak, World Cup shootouts were almost evenly split. Of the first 35 shootouts in World Cup history, 18 were won by the team going second (51.4%), suggesting no inherent advantage. However, including the latest four, that figure rises to 22 of 39 (56.4%). Notably, in the earliest 24 World Cup shootouts, only nine were won by the team going second (37.5%), which may have fueled the belief that going first was better.
Data from other competitions provides mixed results. In the European Championship, 12 of 25 shootouts (48%) were won by the team going second. In the European Cup, only 16 of 42 shootouts (38.1%) were won by the team going second, indicating a possible advantage to going first in that competition. However, the FA Cup since 2013-14 shows 43 of 75 shootouts (57.3%) won by the team going second, with last season's 12 of 17 (70.6%) reinforcing the recent trend. The League Cup, with 207 shootouts since 2013-14, is almost exactly 50-50, with 104 wins for the team going second (50.2%).
Psychological Factors and Missed First Kicks
Opta Analyst notes that in seven of the past 15 World Cup shootouts, the first kick was missed, immediately boosting the team going second. In all seven cases, the team going second won. Overall, of 12 instances where a team missed the first penalty in a World Cup shootout, only two recovered to win: Sweden against Romania in 1994 and Ukraine against Switzerland in 2006.
Despite the data, captains still tend to choose to go first when winning the coin toss. At this World Cup, only one of four winning captains—Mohamed Salah for Egypt against Australia—chose to go second. The other three chose to go first and lost.
Conclusion: Skill Over Order
Opta Analyst concludes that the advantage of going second may be a statistical quirk or placebo effect. Over a large sample, shootout success is close to 50-50, suggesting the quality of penalty takers and goalkeepers is more decisive. As the trend continues, it will be interesting to see if captains adjust their coin-toss choices.
