Russia's Rassvet satellite internet constellation, described as "built specifically for war," will enable Russian forces to launch drones further into Europe, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
In its daily report on Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, the ISW said ground terminals for the Rassvet constellation have been presented, which will "enable Russian forces to increase the range and precision of long-range drone strikes."
Rassvet development and current limitations
Russian aerospace firm Bureau 1440 is developing the Rassvet constellation. Earlier this month, it presented three models of ground terminals that allow users to connect to the constellation and access the internet. The company stated that the three models differ in size, connection speeds, and the ability to provide fast-moving vehicles with uninterrupted connection.
ISW experts noted: "The lack of mobile ground terminals currently constrains Russian forces' use of the Rassvet satellite network even during the limited windows of connectivity that occur when flying drones in Ukraine."
"A broad adoption of mobile Rassvet ground terminals and a further expansion of the existing Rassvet satellite constellation would allow Russian forces to significantly improve their long-range precision strike capabilities and communications on the frontline," the ISW added. "The integration of portable Rassvet terminals into tactical and long-range strike drones would enable Russian forces to control and transmit data to drones at a range limited only by the Rassvet satellite constellation's coverage and increase the drones' precision and resistance to conventional EW systems."
Military implications and expert analysis
Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons and defence industry and fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of Queen's University in Canada, told the Express: "Rassvet is a Russian analogue of Starlink, a low-Earth-orbit satellite system for broadband data transmission. Its main advantage for the military is the ability to control unmanned aerial vehicles in real time via satellite, without the need to use ground-based relays or mesh networks."
Estimates suggest that the Russian Geran-2 kamikaze drone, a version of the Shahed, has a range of 1,800 to 2,500 km, which could theoretically threaten the UK. However, 2,500 km is the maximum range. In practice, Russia often uses complex routes to bypass air defences, which reduces the actual range. The Geran-2 is a subsonic drone, meaning it is a relatively slow target. It would have to cross the airspace of several NATO countries, each of which has air defences, making it extremely difficult for it to reach the UK from Russian territory.
"In addition, Rassvet has not yet been fully deployed. According to the latest data, only 13 satellites are operating in orbit. Continuous drone control throughout the entire flight would require a much larger constellation. Russia plans to complete deployment by the end of 2027, but this is an overly optimistic forecast," Dr. Starchak said. "However, the danger that Russia could use its proxy forces in Europe and attempt to launch its drones from the territory of a European country cannot be ruled out; in that case, the range of the specific drone would be less important."
Chinese cooperation and future risks
Anton Gerashchenko, former advisor to Ukraine's Internal Affairs Minister, wrote on X that Russia could make a "new technological leap" as early as next year, which "would give it an advantage in the war." China is helping the Kremlin with this, he added.
"We see serious signs of cooperation between Chinese companies in the design of Russia's 'Rassvet' network," Mr. Gerashchenko wrote. "'Rassvet' is being built specifically for war, even if officially it is presented as a commercial satellite internet system. It is being developed by Moscow-based Bureau 1440, which is part of IKS Holding."
"The system is being built in low Earth orbit at around 800 km and is intended to provide high-speed, low-latency communications, inter-satellite laser links, 5G NTN, and connectivity with moving platforms. This is exactly the set of capabilities needed by UAVs, maritime drones, military vehicles, and mobile command posts. Russia has already moved from experiments to serial deployment of 'Rassvet'," he added.
Mr. Gerashchenko warned that if Moscow attains stable satellite communications and installs terminals on drones, maritime drones, vehicles and command posts, a "new stage of the war" could have begun. "Russian drones would be able to operate at significantly greater distances, transmit video in real time, receive new commands after launch, and change their routes and targets," he said. "This would make Russian strikes more precise. The risk for Europe is particularly serious: the operator could be sitting in Russia while the drone or another platform operates in another country. This could facilitate attacks and sabotage against military factories, airfields, ports, warehouses, energy infrastructure and other critical infrastructure."
"For now, 'Rassvet' is not ready for this level of use: Russia has only 32 serial satellites, coverage is unstable, and mass production of compact terminals has not been confirmed. It is most realistic to expect a noticeable military effect in 2027, and a more stable system in 2028 or later," he stated. "But China could significantly accelerate this process if it helps not only with components, but also with terminals, antennas, or access to its Qianfan network. Therefore, 2027 looks like the most dangerous period: this is when Russia could move from individual experiments to the systematic use of satellite communications for the war and for operations against European countries."
