Argentina's defence has not always looked befitting of World Cup champions this summer, with Cape Verde, Egypt and Jordan collectively scoring five goals against them. Their only clean sheets came against Algeria and Austria. However, their underlying defensive process has been stronger than the outcomes suggest.
Argentina's Defensive Strength
Argentina's average of 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes is only bettered by Spain (0.31) among all 48 teams at the World Cup. As they have faced the weakest opponents by average FIFA ranking among the four semi-finalists, they should have conceded relatively few chances. What they have done particularly well is restrict where on the pitch those chances occur.
Only Uruguay have allowed a higher proportion of shots faced from outside their penalty area (56%). Colombia are tied for second with Argentina on 52%, with Ecuador fifth at 45%. This has been a South American strength at this World Cup. Ecuador share another positive statistic with Argentina: they are the only teams who have not conceded a shot within their six-yard box.
The Importance of Close-Range Shots
Success in this area is defined by a white line on the pitch. Deroy Duarte's goal for Cape Verde against Argentina was struck from very close to the right edge of the six-yard box, while Dan Ndoye scored for Switzerland from a similar location on the opposite side in the quarter-final. The data shows why the difference matters: shots from within the six-yard box have been converted at a 27.1% rate in this World Cup, almost double the success from goal attempts elsewhere in the penalty area (13.7%).
England's Set-Piece Opportunity
England have not been the best side for attempting to score from close range. Their nine shots from inside the six-yard box is fewer than Canada (12), Ecuador (11) and Norway (10), never mind Spain (14) or Argentina (10). But they can use set pieces to test the defending champions to a greater than normal extent. Argentina have allowed just 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with Cape Verde the only side to have more than three corners against them.
England have made potent use of their set pieces, using them to fashion five close-range chances. Their three shots in Croatia's six-yard box all came following corners, before similar opportunities occurred against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Jude Bellingham scored twice in open play from fewer than six yards out against Mexico, too.
Conclusion
Argentina may be ready for the different threats they will face in Atlanta, but England finding shot locations they have not yet allowed could prove decisive. The ease with which relative minnows have broken the backline of Lionel Scaloni's side should offer ample encouragement to Bellingham and Harry Kane.
