The Rugby League World Cup returns with a new format and a new feel this week, but in the men's event there is a familiar clutch of nations vying for glory. Ten teams will compete in a complex group format, with only four semi-final spots on offer after the quarter-final stage was removed.
Two of those semi-finalists will come from the four-strong Group A while the remaining six nations play in a new inter-group format. The nations in the three-team Group B play the three in Group C and vice versa, with the top two from a combined table of both pools going into the semis.
Can Australia Extend Their Record?
Australia go off as overwhelming favourites to win on home soil, but there are gaps in their previously invincible armour. The best player in the world is absent with Nathan Cleary out due to injury. There were also moments in last year's Ashes where Australia looked vulnerable, but England couldn't make them pay. They will be in the final without doubt, but they could come unstuck against the team they open against on Thursday in New Zealand. Prediction: Runners-up.
New Zealand face the difficult task of the defending champions first up, but they look like a side who could grow into the tournament. Stacey Jones has arguably the best forward pack of the whole field, and with the likes of Kalyn Ponga and Jahrome Hughes causing chaos behind their middle unit, there is an argument that New Zealand could be favourites. Prediction: Winners.
Group A's Underdogs
Cook Islands have never qualified for the knockout stages of a Rugby League World Cup, and the odds on them making history this time are long, given who they are in a group with. They will excite and the likes of KL Iro and Valentine Holmes are names to watch out for, but their best hope is perhaps third place. Prediction: 4th in group.
Fiji have the talent to cause some upsets but ultimately have a near-impossible group to get out of. They should be confident of beating the Cook Islands, but they will need to claim at least one of the greatest scalps in rugby league history to stand a chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. Prediction: 3rd in group.
England Under Pressure
Given the complicated format, the pressure is on England from minute one this week. Brian McDermott's side know that defeat to Tonga on Saturday could be fatal to their chances of making the last four. However, while some are down on England's chances, they have the talent to get out of the group stage at least, with more winnable games against Papua New Guinea and France to follow. McDermott has promised his vision for England will look different to his predecessors; expect the national team to play vast, expansive rugby league in an attempt to finally get over the top of the world's best sides. It will be an almighty ask to go all the way. Prediction: Semi-finals.
Michael Cheika is back for a second crack at a Rugby League World Cup with Lebanon, having led the Cedars in England four years ago. They have a sprinkling of world-class talent including the Canterbury Bulldogs star Jacob Kiraz, but with only two qualifying places for six teams, the chances of them reaching the knockouts are, sadly, low. Prediction: Eliminated in group stage.
Samoa and Tonga's Crucial Clashes
Samoa became the story of the World Cup four years ago when they stunned England in the semi-finals to reach their first final. They look just as strong again this time around, and will be confident of getting into the final four at the very least. Their final group game against Tonga will be crucial for both – and it will be unmissable viewing. Expect Ben Gardiner's side to go deep again; they will have aspirations of going all the way. Prediction: Semi-finals.
Tonga face a similar predicament to England when the sides meet on Saturday, knowing that defeat at such an early stage could be fatal. But unlike England, they have another daunting group game against Samoa to deal with too. Kristian Woolf's side have plenty of stars, headlined by the Dolphins maverick Isaiya Katoa, but they may well be the nation who the complicated and difficult format works against the most. Prediction: Eliminated in group stage.
France and Papua New Guinea's Hopes
As the only other northern hemisphere side apart from England, France will be well worth keeping an eye on given the amount of Super League talent they have. That talent, including the likes of Hull KR's Arthur Mourgue, will ensure they compete in every game, but it is difficult to see France progressing out of the group stage. Prediction: Eliminated in group stage.
No nation provides more colour and passion than Papua New Guinea. Their games against Lebanon and Samoa in Port Moresby will be spine-tingling and the Kumuls will fancy their chances of causing one or two upsets, too. However, they will have to beat one – or maybe both – of Samoa and England in their three games to qualify. That might be too tough a task. Prediction: Eliminated in group stage.
