England were in the mood for banishing demons last night with an aggressive attacking performance to dispatch one of their most feared opponents over the last two decades in Croatia, winning the opening game of Group L 4-2.
A Tale of Two Halves
The result - and, for the most part, the performance - was great fun: four goals, three points and a new-found confidence to play on the front foot not seen from an England team at a World Cup in some time. Yet listening to Anthony Barry's half-time interview with ITV, you would be forgiven for thinking England were trailing at the break rather than level with the score at 2-2.
Thomas Tuchel's assistant manager described the team's opening 45 as "complicated and confusing", complaining of "nervous" energy, poor decision-making and an inability to play with the freedom desired of them. ITV pundit Gary Neville said Barry was "absolutely fuming".
Within seconds of the restart, they were ahead again through Jude Bellingham before Marcus Rashford's late goal removed all doubt of any result other than an England victory. Exploring the data with Machine Football, though, Barry's assessment of the first half appears remarkably accurate. Here, we dissect what England must improve on to go deep into the World Cup.
'A Lot of Nervous Energy Early On'
One of the most telling observations from Barry focused on England's decision-making. "We made some decisions where the energy was not free in our minds," Barry said. "Playing long when we should play short, playing short when we should play long."
This issue was not necessarily showing in the first stage of playing out from the back - Ezri Konsa and John Stones completed 131 passes between them at over 94% accuracy - though there were a few loose passes in central areas that needlessly invited pressure. Instead, England's forward players struggled to get involved in possession. Harry Kane completed 17 passes at 71% accuracy, while Bellingham managed just 23 passes in 85 minutes, both well below their averages for Bayern Munich and Real Madrid this season.
Anthony Gordon completed just nine passes in 78 minutes, compared to his Newcastle average of 26.3 per game, while Noni Madueke managed 16 against a Premier League average of 30.3. The problem went beyond volume. England's most creative players appeared reluctant to take ownership of possession in advanced areas, resulting in a team that often circulated the ball safely rather than progressively.
Tuchel himself told the media afterwards: "The decisions we took, we chose to go safe and played too many balls backwards. We struggled to find any rhythm and didn't have the confidence to go through the gaps and find the rhythm with some short passes. I saw a statistic of 33% of ground duels won in the first half and 73% in the second, so even off the ball it was not brave enough, not committed enough."
The counter-press covered for this at times, as it did to force the corner from which Madueke was fouled for the penalty and England's first goal, but - for large parts of the first half - the patterns of play Tuchel was looking for simply weren't there.
Zero Completed Dribbles from Starting Wingers
Despite space being afforded behind Croatia's wing-backs, England struggled to take advantage of it consistently in the first half. Madueke was involved, winning the penalty and firing an early cross into Bellingham for a great chance at 1-0, but the direct running and dribbling that could have split this game wide open was lacking. The Arsenal man completed zero dribbles across 78 minutes, while Gordon attempted just one and failed to complete it. In the Premier League, both regularly rank among their teams' most aggressive ball carriers but those qualities were absent against Croatia.
Barry spoke about England failing to "play through the gaps" and not being able to "accelerate our game the way we wanted to." The fact that the only moments in the first half when England did break the lines came from counter-pressing situations underlines how the side's wingers avoided the types of individual actions that can create those moments from settled possession.
One notable example came when Bellingham played Madueke in behind Croatia's defence after 20 minutes. Rather than driving towards goal, the winger slowed the attack and laid the ball off to Reece James. Instead of stretching Croatia through dribbles and direct runs, they repeatedly recycled possession and allowed the opposition to reset.
Set Pieces to the Rescue
"We've always been able to rely on set pieces," growled Barry at half-time. Both goals in the first half came from these situations - Kane's brilliant header directly from a Declan Rice corner and his penalty, converted at the second attempt, following a foul on Madueke from an earlier corner. The underlying numbers reflected England's obvious threat from set plays, which on the evidence presented here could prove to be the difference in more games than just this one.
Rice alone delivered all eight of England's corners — more than three times his Premier League average at set-piece specialists Arsenal – and created four chances leading directly to attempts on goal. The quality of these deliveries was evident from the chances they resulted in. Konsa generated 0.91 expected goals (xG) from just two shots, a clear indication of England's threat from dead-ball situations.
While Croatia were largely able to contain England's open-play combinations in the first half, they struggled whenever England loaded the penalty area from corners and free kicks. And though they struggled to consistently create chances through central passing, winning these dead balls was no issue. For all the moments when England looked uncertain in possession, their set-piece structure consistently pointed the way home.
Clinical Croatia Added to Chaos
For all the concerns Barry highlighted so publicly, Croatia generated 0.70 xG overall. England, meanwhile, accumulated 3.20. Croatia were clinical rather than consistently threatening. England's first-half performance felt chaotic because of how the game unfolded, with two goals quickly cancelled out - not because Croatia were repeatedly carving them open.
Barry's half-time assessment may have sounded harsh in the context of a game England would eventually win 4-2, yet the data supports almost every concern he raised. Neville praised Barry's interview, saying: "It told us a lot about the mentality of how Thomas Tuchel would have been ripping into them at half-time."
For long periods of the first half, they looked exactly as Barry described - nervous, hesitant and unable to play with their usual freedom - but then were able to settle the game so ruthlessly after the break. Tuchel added: "If the result doesn't go our way, we want to play our way. I tried to encourage them to go for it."
Despite a mixed start, England's opening win was convincing and fully-deserved. But winning sides always find ways to improve and their response to justified criticism should provide encouragement that this squad possesses the character to do just that.
