The Formula One driver market could still see a significant late-season change, with Cadillac potentially replacing Valtteri Bottas despite both their drivers being locked into 2027 deals. While the grid has been largely stable this year, the situation at Cadillac suggests that the lineup may not be set heading into 2027.
Stable Market, One Change So Far
The driver market has generally been less active than many had predicted this year, mostly because big hitters like Max Verstappen, who signed a new Red Bull deal after months of speculation over his future, and Fernando Alonso, who has put off retirement to stay at Aston Martin for another year, have stayed put. The only notable change confirmed is Esteban Ocon's impending exit at Haas, who have decided to replace him with rookie Rafael Camara next year.
One team, Racing Bulls, has yet to officially confirm its lineup. Nikola Tsolov is in the Formula 2 title hunt but is unlikely to be rewarded with an F1 seat next year, with Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad being retained the most likely outcome as it stands.
Cadillac's Driver Dilemma
The truly intriguing situation is at Cadillac. When they signed with the newest team in F1, both Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas agreed long-term deals covering multiple seasons, yet the latter could still find himself out of a job earlier than planned. Both drivers have not scored a point this year, but that is down to their uncompetitive car. The difference is, while Bottas' qualifying record compares well with that of his team-mate, the Finn's race pace has too often left much to be desired compared to what Perez has produced.
That has led to speculation over his future, and team principal Marcin Budkowski failed to take the chance to back Bottas in a press conference in Austin on Friday. Asked about his team's driver lineup, he said he would not answer the question in front of the media and added: "It's something which will be done by official releases from the team when the time is right."
No announcement at all would be necessary if they were certain about sticking with their current pairing, given both already have deals for 2027. A hint that Cadillac are indeed considering their options? Perhaps.
Potential Replacements and System Flaws
Cadillac seem to have several options. Ocon will no doubt be strongly linked after losing his Haas place. The Frenchman has already said he intends to continue his F1 career, and Cadillac is his only realistic option of a 2027 race seat. The alternative is a reserve role elsewhere, hoping it will turn into something more.
Speaking of reserves, Yuki Tsunoda is keen to get himself off the sidelines. He has been the reserve to both Red Bull teams so far this year and did get three races after the summer break while Isack Hadjar recovered from a wrist injury. The Japanese racer's management team has been in contact with Cadillac to make it clear he would love the chance to race for them in 2027.
Cadillac also have their own in-house option already. Colton Herta has had a largely miserable year, having swapped IndyCar where he was a nine-time race-winner for Formula 2. He has scored just 26 points from 23 race starts and is 19th in the championship out of 22 regular-season racers, which is a horrid return for someone with his experience at a much higher level.
Crucially, though, despite that lack of performance in F2, Herta is close to securing his FIA superlicence, and Cadillac believe that one more FP1 drive between now and the end of the year will be enough to ensure the American will be eligible to race in F1. They are keen to do what they can to ensure it happens. Cadillac are keen to field an American driver, and Herta has long been their clear choice. While he hasn't been competitive in F2, he has been measured more on what he has produced in several FP1 appearances in F1 machinery so far this year, plus a test in an old Alpine F1 car at Portimao earlier this year.
Herta's achievements in IndyCar show he is a capable operator in a senior single-seater series, but the fact he is edging closer to an F1 promotion despite being towards the bottom of the F2 standings shows just how ridiculous the system is. Last year's F2 champion, Leonardo Fornaroli, didn't get a chance to race in F1 and missed out on the Haas seat for 2027, so will next year race for McLaren in the World Endurance Championship instead. Theo Pourchaire, the 2023 F1 champion, and 2022 title-winner Felipe Drugovich have also never raced in F1, while Tsolov could win this year's title and not get a chance to race next season.
Yet, because he has a Cadillac affiliation and is commercially attractive, Herta may yet land an F1 seat off the back of a winless, podiumless and thoroughly underwhelming F2 season. While some other drivers who have beaten all their rivals never get the chance to progress. It is not Herta's fault, nor is it his problem, but the situation does underscore just how silly the current feeder series system can be.
