The Welsh Rugby Union has finally published the Keystone report, outlining the basis of its controversial decision to cut either the Ospreys or the Scarlets. The significant move sets out the data it has used to determine the future allocation of Wales’s professional rugby licences.
The report details the criteria against which the regions were assessed as the WRU seeks to establish one licence in the east, one in Cardiff and one in the west.
Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas examines the findings, unpicks the key figures and assesses where each club stands in the rankings across the factors assessed to determine the geographical split which has proved so controversial.
Population and accessibility
The WRU believes the size of the local population base is an important factor for assessing matchday demand, commercial opportunities and community engagement. These factors are key to assessing revenue generation potential, it says.
According to WRU data/analysis, Cardiff has the largest population catchment at 937k - more than double the smallest population catchment, which is the Scarlets at 387k. Dragons and Ospreys have roughly comparable population sizes.
With regard to the number of people within a 30-minute drive, the Dragons are at the top of the pile with 617k, with Cardiff a close second at 666k. The Ospreys are at 401k, while the Scarlets are at 388k, which is significantly lower than the teams in east Wales.
Keystone also claims Cardiff has the strongest market position.
Within a 30-minute drive, the two western Clubs have a highly overlapping catchment according to Keystone with 68.4% of premises in the Scarlets / Ospreys cluster within 30 minutes of both stadiums.
The equivalent overlap is lower in the south-east cluster: 47.7% of premises in the Cardiff / Dragons cluster are within 30 minutes of both stadiums.
This suggests that, for car travel, Scarlets and Ospreys are more closely substitutable from an accessibility perspective than Cardiff and Dragons. However, this does not imply that supporters or participants would necessarily transfer their engagement, given local identity, public transport links and community ties.
Cardiff Arms Park ranks high in terms of accessibility.
The 60-minute catchments reveal a different picture. In the south-west, 70.5% of premises in the Scarlets–Ospreys cluster fall within an hour’s drive of both stadiums. In the south-east, the overlap is considerably greater: 91.1% of premises in the Cardiff–Dragons cluster are within the same driving distance of both grounds.
The figures suggest that Cardiff and the Dragons share a more extensive catchment for longer car journeys, while the Scarlets and Ospreys retain substantial, though less pronounced, overlap at this wider radius.
As with the 30-minute analysis, however, proximity measures accessibility, not allegiance; it does not mean that supporters or participants would automatically transfer between clubs.
Keystone says Cardiff and the Dragons are the most accessible by rail, with population-weighted journey times of around 60 and 74 minutes.
Scarlets and Ospreys are materially less accessible by rail, with population-weighted journey times of around 160 and 118 minutes respectively.
It has also looked at access from north Wales. According to Keystone from a north Wales rail-access perspective the Dragons are the most accessible club with Cardiff second, Ospreys third and Scarlets fourth.
According to Keystone the "proximity analysis indicates that no three-club permutation appears radically worse overall in terms of accessibility. However, a model not including Cardiff or Dragons appears to have the most detrimental effect on accessibility."
Accessibility ranking: 1. Cardiff, 2. Dragons, 3. Ospreys, 4. Scarlets.
Fan support and heritage
Keystone's findings show Cardiff had the largest estimated supporter base in 2018 at 306k, with Ospreys a close second at 296k. Scarlets were at 235k in 2018, with the Dragons at 202k.
Dragons had the most locally concentrated estimated support, with 71% coming from within their own region, followed by Cardiff at 69%.
Ospreys and Scarlets were slightly less locally concentrated, with 64% and 61% respectively coming from within their own regions.
Cardiff had the highest average attendance, averaging 8.8k per match in the 2024/25 season, while the Scarlets were second at 6.6k.
The Dragons averaged 5.7k and the Ospreys had the lowest average crowd at 4.9k.
Keystone found that all four clubs have very meaningful cultural value.
Largest supporter base - 1. Cardiff, 2. Ospreys, 3. Scarlets, 4. Dragons.
Largest locally concentrated support - 1. Dragons, 2. Cardiff, 3. Ospreys, 4. Scarlets.
Highest attendances - 1. Cardiff, 2. Scarlets, 3. Dragons, 4. Ospreys.
Rugby infrastructure
According to Keystone, particular weight has been attached to stadium infrastructure because it affects matchday revenue, hospitality, supporter experience, commercial opportunities and the club’s ability to invest over time.
But it does emphasise that stadium ownership is not the only relevant consideration.
Keystone says "a club without stadium ownership may still have valuable infrastructure if it has secure access to a suitable venue, strong training facilities or other assets that support performance and player development."
It is also quick to point out that existing infrastructure should be be treated as "relevant but not determinative."
Keystone goes on to say "future credible commitments to invest in stadia, training facilities or other assets are also important, particularly where they could materially change a club’s infrastructure position under the three-club model."
There is no doubt the Scarlets currently have the best infrastructure but the Ospreys' plans to redevelop St Helen's are important and cannot be dismissed based on Keystone's findings.
But the Dragons are the only club that owns its own stadium, which gives it a big advantage. Cardiff and Scarlets have sole-use stadium arrangements but do not own their stadia, although they sit as assets on their respective balance sheets.
Ospreys’ stadium position is more transitional as they are redeveloping the St Helen’s Sports Ground in Swansea to serve as their new permanent home.
This is a snapshot of current evidence and the WRU may separately consider future commitments as part of any subsequent process.
Player pathways
Scarlets and Cardiff have the highest number of first Wales caps since 2008, with the Ospreys third and the Dragons fourth.
According to Keystone, the debut data shows that Scarlets, Cardiff and Ospreys have each contributed broadly equally to the Wales national team, while Dragons show a significantly lower level of contribution over the period reviewed.
Total Wales men’s caps attributed to players’ club at debut, 2008–2025 - 1. Scarlets, 2. Cardiff, 3. Ospreys, 4. Dragons.
Sporting performance
Keystone makes a point of emphasising that performance is relevant but should be treated as a supporting indicator rather than a predictor of future success.
It goes on to say "past results may not indicate future performance under a three-Club model, where talent, funding and resources may be concentrated differently. Performance should therefore be considered alongside other evidence, including player pathways, infrastructure, financial sustainability and community support."
Keystone assess performance on URC and European records.
Ospreys and Scarlets have been the strongest historic domestic performers, with average ranks of 1.9 and 2.0 respectively. Dragons have been the weakest performer, with an average rank of 3.7, and have finished fourth among the Welsh Clubs in 18 of the 23 seasons assessed.
The Ospreys have won four league titles and the Scarlets have won two with no titles in east Wales.
Scarlets and Ospreys have the strongest top-tier European qualification record.
Scarlets have played 19 Champions Cup seasons and Ospreys 17, compared with 14 for Cardiff and eight for Dragons.
Top-tier knockout performance is more balanced. The Ospreys and Scarlets have each qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions Cup four times, Cardiff have three, and Dragons have none.
Since the inception of regional rugby the Scarlets have gone the furthest in the Champions Cup reaching two semi-finals in 2007 and 2018.
Cardiff are the only Welsh club to have lifted European silverware winning the EPCR Challenge Cup twice.
Regional URC ranking: 1. Ospreys, 2. Scarlets, 3. Cardiff, 4. Dragons.
European rugby with greater weight put on the Champions Cup: 1. Scarlets, 2. Ospreys, 3. Cardiff, 4. Dragons.
Financial sustainability
According to Keystone, "financial sustainability is relevant to the licence assessment because the three-Club model is intended to support a resilient professional game."
It has measured revenue strength across the four clubs which includes total income. Keystone says "clubs with larger or more diversified revenue streams may, all else equal, be better placed to support a sustainable professional model."
But revenue does not show profitability, liquidity, debt, cost base, owner support or committed investment, and clubs’ financial positions may improve or deteriorate over time.
Cardiff and Dragons currently lead on total and commercial revenues according to the Keystone report.
Cardiff and Dragons generated the highest total revenues in 2024/25, at £11.9m and £11.8m respectively, followed by Scarlets at £10.2m and Ospreys at £9.2m.
According to Keystone, "revenues outside competition income and WRU funding, such as sponsorship and matchday income (i.e. commercial revenues), are particularly relevant because they indicate each Club’s ability to generate sustainable revenue independently of central distributions and competition receipts."
It adds: "On this measure, Dragons and Cardiff are strongest, with sponsorship, matchday and other revenues of £4.9m and £4.4m respectively. Scarlets generated £3.2m, while Ospreys generated only £1.7m, less than half the Cardiff and Dragons levels."
Keystone also emphasises that other factors such as owner support and future investment commitments will also be relevant.
It points out that all four clubs posted losses in the 2024/25 season.
Financial sustainability ranking based on total and commercial revenues: 1. Cardiff, 2. Dragons, 3. Scarlets, 4. Ospreys.
Grassroots participation
Keystone has ranked Cardiff first in all metrics from the number of schools, playing teams and coaches.
Scarlets ranks last for playing teams and coaches while Ospreys are bottom of the pile for school teams.
But according to Keystone, 71% of possible school teams in the Scarlets region are active whereas only 59% of possible school teams in the Cardiff region are active.
School teams: 1. Cardiff, 2. Dragons, 3. Scarlets, 4. Ospreys.
Playing teams: 1. Cardiff, 2. Ospreys, 3. Dragons, 4. Scarlets.
Coaches: 1. Cardiff, 2. Ospreys, 3. Dragons, 4. Scarlets.
