For anyone who has ever taken the Scotland national team for granted, history offers a swift and stern lesson. As Steve Clarke's squad prepares to face a Greece side already eliminated from the World Cup, the Tartan Army would have gladly accepted this scenario at the start of the campaign.
A positive result in Piraeus sets up a final, winner-takes-all showdown with Denmark on Tuesday. Yet, conflating this golden opportunity with a guaranteed outcome would be a grave mistake. A team freed from the shackles of pressure, like Greece, presents a significant and lurking danger.
Learning from the Ghosts of Campaigns Past
The shadow of past near-misses still looms large. Before Clarke ended the long wait for a major tournament by reaching Euro 2020, the most painful memory was the failed bid for Euro 2008 under Alex McLeish.
That squad, drawn against World Cup finalists Italy and France, performed heroically, famously defeating France home and away. However, the abiding sense of injustice from a late winner conceded against Italy obscures a more self-inflicted wound: a costly defeat away to a Georgia side that was already out of the running.
This history reinforces a nagging vulnerability in this Scotland side when facing apparently floundering opponents. It makes Steve Clarke's recent tactical musings somewhat concerning.
The Formation Debate: Defence or Ambition?
While a draw is functionally as good as a win for Scotland (assuming Denmark beat Belarus), the suggestion of reverting to a back-five formation feels like a risky strategy. Loading the sandbags and playing for a single point is a dangerous game that invites pressure.
The positive 4-2-3-1 system has served Clarke well over the past year. Shifting to a defensive five brings back dismal memories of its failure during last year's European Championships. With Kieran Tierney available, there is no longer a need to awkwardly shoehorn both him and Andy Robertson into the same setup.
The absence of Billy Gilmour should see Ryan Christie drop into a deeper role, where he has excelled for Bournemouth, alongside the energetic Lewis Ferguson.
Scotland are at their most potent when Scott McTominay is driving forward into the opposition's penalty area. Supporting the Manchester United man with the attacking thrust of John McGinn and the direct running of a wide player would ensure the team carries a consistent threat.
Up front, with two goals against Belarus, Che Adams has firmly earned the right to start as the central striker ahead of Lyndon Dykes. This will be a battle requiring a full squad effort, a job for all 16 men.
Seizing the Initiative for a Place in History
The primary criticism of Clarke's otherwise successful tenure has been a tendency towards timidity on the biggest occasions. As the author Norman Vincent Peale advised, 'Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you’ll land among the stars.'
In football terms, this means going for the victory. A positive mindset, backed by a positive formation, is the surest path to avoiding defeat. How encouraging it would be to see this Scotland side take a monumental step towards a third successive major tournament not by clinging on, but by decisively seizing the initiative in Piraeus.
