Researchers have warned of a 'real risk' of unsafe conditions at the 2026 World Cup, with matches in Miami most likely to be affected by extreme heat. A Guardian analysis of meteorological data found that every match staged in Miami is likely to exceed key temperature thresholds, while all venues except Mexico City's Azteca Stadium have experienced rising heat levels over the past 30 years.
The study uses wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which factors in humidity, radiant heat and wind speed alongside air temperature. Under FIFA rules, consideration should be given to suspending a fixture if WBGT reaches 32°C, but players' union Fifpro argues the threshold should be lower, at 28°C. Research published in the journal Temperature found that during last summer's Club World Cup, mean WBGT exceeded 28°C in 31 of 57 matches, leading to reduced player performance.
Data from World Weather Attribution (WWA) suggests 26 matches at the 2026 tournament will be played at or above 26°C WBGT, a level at which Fifpro recommends cooling breaks. Only five matches are expected to reach 28°C, but 45 matches have up to a 20% chance of hitting that mark. There is a one-in-four chance a game will be played in WBGT of 30°C. Compared to the 1994 World Cup, the number of matches exceeding 26°C has risen by 52%, and by 75% at 28°C.
Theodore Keeping, a research associate at Imperial College London, said it is 'more likely than not' that the 28°C threshold will be breached, and assessments may be conservative. Joyce Kimutai, also of Imperial College, noted that 'around half of human-caused climate change has occurred since 1994' and that despite scheduling adjustments, there remains a 'very real risk' of unsafe conditions for players and fans.
