Cardiff City and Swansea City could be in line for more than £12 million in Premier League payments in the potential financial fallout from Manchester City's charges.
An analysis by data specialists OLBG has estimated that Swansea could have received an additional £9.1m and Cardiff £3.15m in Premier League merit payments if Manchester City's results were removed from the calculations. That would give the two Welsh clubs a combined potential figure of £12.25m.
Estimate based on hypothetical redistribution
The figures are based on a hypothetical redistribution of Premier League merit payments rather than an established compensation order, and the analysis covers a wider period than the charges brought against Manchester City.
An independent commission has found Manchester City guilty of 114 of the 115 charges brought against them by the Premier League. The club is expected to appeal, while sanctions have yet to be determined. City have maintained that the Premier League process remains ongoing and have reiterated their position that they have acted properly.
Methodology and scope
According to the OLBG analysis, the estimated figures are based on Premier League central payments between 2011/12 and 2025/26. Merit payments are linked to where a club finishes in the Premier League table.
The analysis effectively removes Manchester City from each season's standings and moves the other teams up one position where appropriate. The difference between what clubs actually received and what they would have received in the adjusted standings is then used to calculate the potential figure.
That means the analysis stretches beyond the main period covered by Manchester City's charges, which principally relate to alleged breaches between 2009 and 2018, with some of the alleged failures to cooperate with the Premier League extending into later years. The £12.25m figure for Cardiff and Swansea should therefore be viewed as an estimate based on the methodology used, rather than an indication that either club is currently owed that amount.
Wider potential impact
Across all the clubs examined, OLBG estimates that almost £528 million in additional Premier League merit payments could theoretically have been distributed if Manchester City's results and league positions were removed from the calculations. Everton are calculated to have the largest potential increase at £28.94m, followed by Manchester United (£28.12m), West Ham (£28.09m), Crystal Palace (£27.33m) and Newcastle United (£26.90m). Liverpool are estimated at £24.42m, Tottenham £25.54m and Arsenal £21.29m.
The potential claims could, however, extend beyond a redistribution of Premier League merit payments. The Athletic reported last week that a number of Premier League clubs had already sought legal advice about potential compensation claims following the City verdict. Several clubs have been discussing their options with lawyers, with the possibility of collective legal action also raised. Any claims would only be able to proceed after the wider Manchester City case, including the appeals process, has been completed.
Potential losses being examined could include missed Champions League qualification, lost sponsorship opportunities and other financial consequences. The Athletic also reported that the 2021/22 ruling involving Everton and Burnley could prove significant. An independent commission ordered Everton to pay Burnley £35.1m after finding their Profitability and Sustainability Rules breach had given them a sporting advantage.
City's guilty verdict relates to alleged financial breaches dating back to the period between 2009 and 2018. The club was originally charged by the Premier League in February 2023 following a four-year investigation. The Premier League has not yet announced the punishment City will face, with the club expected to challenge the findings through the appeals process.
