The UK Statistics Authority has rebuked Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch over a claim about welfare spending that it said was not wholly accurate. In a letter to Badenoch, interim chair Penny Young said the statement that the total welfare bill now exceeds income tax receipts for the first time ever was misleading, as data from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) shows this has been the case since at least 2011.
Claim made after King's Speech
The claim was made in a Conservative Party document released after the King's Speech last month. It stated that 'for the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax'. However, the UK Statistics Authority noted that while social security spending does currently exceed income tax revenue, this is not a recent development.
OBR figures indicate the gap between welfare spending and income tax receipts has actually narrowed in recent years, and the positions are forecast to reverse in the 2026/27 financial year.
Concerns over public understanding
Young expressed concern that the inaccuracy of the 'first time ever' element, combined with a lack of context, could lead to public misunderstanding. The Conservative document focused mainly on out-of-work and sickness benefits, but the 'total welfare bill' includes other benefits such as the State Pension, which the authority said should have been made clear.
Young urged Badenoch to 'consider how best to clarify' the statement to support public understanding of trends in taxation and welfare spending. The Conservative Party has been contacted for comment.
