Senior British politicians and officials are weighing the opportunities and risks presented by the US midterm election results, highlighting the potential to end the Iran war while warning that President Trump is not yet a spent force.
UK government officials with the prime minister at the Commonwealth summit in Antigua watched the results roll in with growing incredulity as the scale of the Republicans' defeat became clear. "We knew it was going to be bad for Trump but it was historic result after historic result: Kansas, South Carolina, Texas," one said. "We've been dealing with this constant anxiety over Trump's erraticism and what he might do next for years. Finally, there's a bit of hope."
Hope for Iran de-escalation
Prime Minister Andy Burnham struggled to disguise his relief that the US president could be restrained. "I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all and that's the cost of living," he said. "But I can't get people's cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved … I'll be working for de-escalation, to make it very clear."
The energy price shock and subsequent interest rate hikes caused by the US war on Iran have severely affected economies around the world, making this set of midterm elections the most consequential for the UK in decades. Earlier this month, the prime minister admitted his first budget had been "less radical than he had hoped", with the global economic volatility forcing the government's hand.
Trump's foreign policy influence remains
While Trump's domestic powers will be constrained, he still wields significant influence over foreign policy. "We've all learned over recent years that all of this lands on the desk of just one decision-maker in Washington. How he interprets these elections matters more than how they're seen in any other global capital," one UK government insider said.
Kim Darroch, the UK's man in Washington the last time Trump was in office, said the president still had the ability to wreak chaos on the world stage. "You can't formally declare war without congressional approval but you can engage in conflict. He can impose tariffs and insult allies and cosy up to dictators. All of that is still open to Trump," he said.
However, the mood music in Washington toward Iran already appears to have shifted, with hope in diplomatic circles that the midterms have strengthened the resolve for a negotiated conclusion to the war. David Miliband, a former UK foreign secretary now based in New York, said: "I would guess that the odds on renewed assault on Iran have lengthened, and the pressure for resolution will be strengthened."
Cautious optimism in UK
UK ministers are cautiously optimistic, with oil prices dropping sharply after the results. "We know all the risks. We know he could change his mind on Iran again, that he could strike a deal with Putin that locks out Ukraine, that he could announce more indiscriminate tariffs," one minister said. "But we also see this as a moment of opportunity."
Emily Thornberry, the chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, highlighted the Democrats' very different foreign policy agenda. "Let's see what happens. I think they come in from January and believe that they've got a mandate to finish the Iranian war," she said. "On top of that, they are much more sympathetic, as is the general public, to the plight of the Ukrainians and believe that the American president is not playing fair."
Labour figures are already building links in the new-look Congress, with some Democrats proposing a bill modelled on Labour's approach to Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Some in UK policy circles argue that a Democrat-run Congress could help advance the UK's international priorities, such as AI regulation or clean energy, both resisted by the Trump White House.
Government sources said that while they would revive traditional links between Labour and the Democrats before the next presidential election, they were proceeding carefully, citing Trump's accusation of "interference" during the last presidential election. "We need to be cautious – but also it's entirely reasonable for us to engage with them," a senior aide said.
Party strategists warn against assuming Reform UK would necessarily suffer the same fate as the Republicans. "It's all about the cost of living: unless we show that we have the answers voters could still look elsewhere," one said. Republicans also deny the era is over, with Sarah Elliott, the director of the special relationship unit at the Prosperity Institute, saying: "As long as immigration is on the rise and there is poor assimilation of immigrants in western countries, rightwing populism will be a force in politics."
Darroch cautioned British politicians against prematurely focusing on Trump's potential successors. "Burnham has to be careful he doesn't appear to be moving on from Trump and dismissing him as a spent force," he added. "He will be there until the end. Trump will not gallop gently into a golden sunset. He will rage against the weakening of his grip on power."
