Democrats have surged ahead of Republicans in nearly all battleground states ahead of the US midterm elections, setting the stage for a potentially embarrassing night for President Donald Trump. Final polls before voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, show Democrats holding significant leads in historically Republican strongholds that will determine which party controls the US Senate.
Strong leads in Republican strongholds
According to the New York Times, Democrats are ahead in states including Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat since 1932. Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico holds a seven-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has opened an 11-point lead over Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers. To win a Senate majority, Democrats must defend all seats they currently hold and win four seats currently held by Republicans.
Polling reveals widespread Democratic advantage
Polling carried out by the New York Times and Siena University found Democratic candidates ahead in five states with Republican senators, with the two parties effectively tied in a sixth. Democrats lead in Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, with a narrow edge in Alaska and a tie in Iowa.
Republicans are reportedly watching a huge early turnout in Texas, with many young Hispanic voters who did not vote in 2024 now coming out. The New York Times reported that the polls indicate frustration with President Trump's management of the US economy. Likely voters said they believed Democrats would do a better job handling the cost-of-living and foreign wars, as well as doing what's best for regular Americans.
Economic concerns and political drama in Michigan
After diesel prices climbed following the Iran war, plus the administration's decision to drop import tariffs on foreign beef, farmers in typically red states like Kansas appear to have turned against President Trump. In every state but Maine, the Democratic Senate candidate was viewed more favorably than the Republican candidate, the New York Times report continues.
The news came at the end of a day of high drama in Michigan, where Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat defeated by El-Sayed in the Senate race, announced she would vote for MAGA Republican Mike Rogers. The unexpected twist came after a row between the candidates over Israel and an ad by a third-party group which some, including Stevens, said crossed the line into antisemitism, the Mirror reports.
Despite settling their differences, Stevens' fiancé, Jason Turkish, gave interviews over the weekend attacking El-Sayed and endorsing Rogers. It emerged that El-Sayed had told Stevens she was no longer welcome at his campaign events. After telling allies on Saturday night she would not switch sides, Stevens appeared at a church photo op with Rogers on Sunday morning.
Standing next to Rogers at a press conference outside the church, Stevens said: "Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there. I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close this campaign by saying I wasn't welcome. I've never been invited to a campaign event. That's fine. You know, he's busy. He's running all around."
After a CNN interview where Stevens struggled to defend her decision, fellow Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell said: "That was one of the most painful interviews I have ever watched. I have been worried about her all last week. She's a human being. I have had multiple conversations with her. I'm far from being the only one that has." Stevens' entire staff resigned following her announcement, and the Michigan Democratic Party are understood to have expelled her.
Asked if she was surprised by Stevens' move, Dingell said: "I was stunned since she had told me she wasn't doing that last night at midnight."
