Nadhim Zahawi's defection to Reform UK has intensified the Conservative Party's internal strife, as Nigel Farage's insurgent movement seeks to capitalise on disaffected Tories. The former chancellor, who served under Boris Johnson, is the 20th ex-Conservative MP to join Reform, bringing ministerial experience that Farage has identified as crucial for credibility. However, the move risks transforming Reform into 'Conservative Party 2.0', undermining its insurgent appeal.
Zahawi's political career has been marked by controversy. Appointed chancellor in July 2022 during Johnson's final days, he was privately branded an opportunist by colleagues for not resigning earlier. Farage himself acknowledged Zahawi's ambition, stating at the time that 'all he's interested in is climbing that greasy pole'. The defection comes despite Zahawi's 2014 pledge to 'die a Conservative'.
Reform's strategy of recruiting former Tory ministers presents a dilemma: while addressing the party's lack of experience, it risks alienating voters seeking an alternative to the Conservatives. Reform's Zia Yusuf warned last month that 'washed up' former Tory MPs would not be prioritised for parliamentary selections. The Tories have retaliated by briefing that Zahawi had 'begged' for a peerage weeks ago but was rejected due to his tax affairs.
Reform's momentum appears to be stalling, with polls suggesting it may have hit a support ceiling. YouGov data shows Farage losing in head-to-head matchups against Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey, indicating potential tactical voting to keep him from power. Meanwhile, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is slowly stabilising the party, reducing the urgency for further defections.
Zahawi's defection is not without risk for Reform. He was sacked as Tory party chair in 2023 after failing to be transparent about a £5m tax settlement with HMRC. His extensive business dealings in the Middle East and past scrutiny over oil companies and tax havens are likely to face renewed examination. The big prize for Reform would be to win over sitting Tory MPs, which could herald the party's collapse, but for now, the feared exodus has not materialised.
