As Andy Burnham enters No 10, Guardian data analysis reveals the fissures with Labour’s traditional supporters, and the traps the new PM will want to avoid. Keir Starmer’s tenure ended after just over two years, with his net approval rating plunging from -3 when he took office to -66 by September 2025 – the lowest recorded by Ipsos for any prime minister since 1977.
Union donations to Labour have declined steadily over the past 20 years, and the fracture worsened under Starmer, reaching its lowest point for any full year in 2025. Starmer clashed with unions, sacking Sam Tarry for doing interviews from a picket line, and saw Unite reduce its membership fees by more than half a million pounds in March 2025.
Unions hailed Starmer’s employment rights bill as a “generational shift”, but there was little warmth between the PM and union leaders. The GMB and Prospect criticised his net zero policies, and a recent poll showed support for Labour and Reform UK tied at 28% among trade union members, a 20-point drop in union backing since the 2024 election.
Burnham has made overtures to unions, meeting leaders at Unison and calling for “greater public control of essential services”. However, a potential flashpoint has emerged: Burnham’s choice for chancellor. Unite and the GMB have been critical of Ed Miliband, a favourite for the role, while Unison has backed him.
