Keir Starmer’s closest aides are “war-gaming” how to win a leadership contest ahead of Andy Burnham’s anticipated return to Westminster if he wins the Makerfield by-election, Downing Street sources have said. The prime minister is said to be “hellbent” on fighting any challenge, with his team working through scenarios including sacking ministers who publicly support Burnham.
Several close allies acknowledge that Starmer’s future may be out of his hands. “Keir may be determined to fight any challenge. But when it comes to it, he might not have a choice. As one former prime minister put it, when the herd moves, it moves,” a loyalist minister said. Starmer is said to be self-aware enough to stand aside if he felt Labour could not win with him at the helm, but is “not there yet”.
Burnham said last week he would seek to join any potential Labour leadership contest should he beat Reform in the by-election, without ruling out challenging Starmer directly. The prime minister’s team is preparing despite scepticism. One senior aide said: “Maybe it is over. But if so, Keir’s not going without a fight. Our plan is to be more Harry Truman and less Joe Biden.”
Steve Reed, a loyal cabinet minister, insisted Starmer would fight any contest and should even offer Burnham a job if he wins in Makerfield. Allies argue Burnham is unprepared, noting his time will be consumed by the subsequent mayor of Greater Manchester election and that his momentum will ebb. Starmer warns that lowering the threshold to depose leaders would make Labour “just like the Tories”.
A YouGov poll found 59% of party members would back Burnham against Starmer, with 37% supporting the prime minister, though allies believe a 10% swing is possible once Burnham faces scrutiny. After Labour’s poor local election results, several cabinet ministers urged Starmer to consider his future. Insiders admit that if public calls for him to go grow, resisting the pressure would be difficult.
