Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence predict that global console sales will decline by 19.5% in 2026, reaching 33.9 million units, even with the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6. This marks a significant drop from 42.1 million units sold in 2025, a year boosted by the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2. The firm expects sales to fall further to 27.1 million units in 2027 before recovering to 37.4 million units by 2030.
GTA 6 Fails to Move the Needle
Despite GTA 6 being the most anticipated game of all time, S&P's forecast does not foresee it having a major effect on console sales. The PlayStation 5 is predicted to decline to 13.2 million units in 2026, down from 17.1 million in 2025. The Xbox Series X/S, which shipped only 3.2 million units last year, is forecast to drop to 2.5 million in 2026, followed by “a rapid wind-down toward zero thereafter.” The Switch 2 is expected to sell 17.1 million units in 2026, matching the second-year performance of the Wii and original Switch.
High Prices and Component Shortages Blamed
S&P analyst Neil Barbour told GamesIndustry.biz: “A critical assumption underlying our forecast’s recovery period later in the decade is that the component crisis eases sufficiently by 2028 to allow Sony and Microsoft to bring next generation hardware to market at price points in the $600 to $800 range.” The report cites rising console prices due to components being diverted to AI data centers, an ongoing memory shortage limiting stock, and a lack of major “tentpole releases” as key reasons for the decline. Some electronics companies warn the memory crisis could last well into 2030, with prices unlikely to return to previous levels.
Next-Gen Consoles Face Skepticism
Both Sony and Microsoft are expected to launch next-generation consoles—the PlayStation 6 and Project Helix—within the next couple of years, but enthusiasm among hardcore gamers is low. Sony’s controversial plans to ditch physical games entirely and Xbox’s recent layoffs have dampened excitement. The PS5 Pro already costs considerably more than S&P’s suggested $600–$800 range, and there is chatter of Sony and Microsoft charging over £1,000 for their next consoles. Sony has stated it will not sell the PlayStation 6 at a “significant loss.” Nintendo may fare better with the Switch 2 remaining more affordable, though its future lineup remains uncertain, with little shown of the Zelda: Ocarina of Time remake and Pokémon Winds and Waves not expected until late 2027.
