Republican Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy faces a tough primary election on Saturday, as former President Donald Trump's endorsement of his opponent, Representative Julia Letlow, threatens to end his political career. Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6 insurrection and later cast a pivotal vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary, is now fighting for his political survival in a deeply Republican state.
Trump's Revenge Campaign
Trump's endorsement of Letlow in January underscored his continued willingness to seek revenge against Republicans who crossed him. Cassidy, a gastroenterologist and co-founder of a clinic for uninsured patients, has served in the Senate since 2014. His relationship with Trump soured after he voted to convict the president in the 2021 impeachment trial, leading to censure by the Louisiana Republican Party.
An Emerson College poll released last month showed Cassidy in third place among likely Republican voters, with Letlow and state treasurer John Fleming leading. "This is a primary that is mostly about Trump," said Robert Hogan, a Louisiana State University political science professor, adding that Trump's spurning was likely the "death knell" for Cassidy's Senate career.
Challengers and Strategy
Both Letlow and Fleming have emphasized their ties to Trump. Letlow, endorsed by Trump and Governor Jeff Landry, has focused on her conservative credentials. Fleming's campaign has distributed photos of him with the president. Cassidy, meanwhile, has criticized Letlow, dubbing her "Lib Letlow" over past support for campus diversity programs, which she has since repudiated.
Cassidy's campaign aims to finish in the top two of the primary to advance to a runoff election in June. "The mission is pretty simple," said campaign consultant Mark Harris. "It's to go out, get as many votes as we can on Saturday and position ourselves well for the runoff."
Primary System Changes
Changes to Louisiana's primary system in 2024, pushed by Governor Landry, now require Senate candidates to be nominated only by party members and unaffiliated voters. Political strategist Ron Faucheux said the changes were likely intended to ensure that Republicans who fall out of favor with Trump have no path to re-election. "The new primary system is geared to help staunch, conservative, pro-Trump candidates get elected," he said.
If Cassidy loses, he would join a growing list of Republicans whose careers have ended at Trump's hands. Earlier this month, five of seven Indiana state senators who blocked a Trump-backed gerrymandering effort lost their primaries. In North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis retired after breaking with Trump.
Unaffiliated voters could provide a saving grace for Cassidy, though Faucheux noted that a runoff would still be tough due to strong pro-Trump sentiment among Republican voters.
