The feud between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon is unlikely to halt rising nationalism across the United Kingdom, according to analysis of current political trends. Salmond has reportedly threatened to reveal details of his disagreement with Sturgeon over his sexual harassment case, but internal SNP strife may not prevent growing support for Scottish independence.
Sturgeon's approval rating stands at +21, compared to Salmond's –60 and Boris Johnson's –54. Even if Sturgeon were to leave office, the analysis suggests 'Sturgeonism' would persist. The nationalist movement has become deeply embedded in the UK, with economic and practical concerns often overshadowed by rhetoric in independence struggles.
Polls indicate only 46% of people in England want Scotland to remain in the Union. Meanwhile, support for Irish reunification is rising in Northern Ireland, and nationalist parties are gaining ground in Wales. The United Kingdom's reduction to Great Britain following Ireland's secession in 1922 is cited as a historical precedent.
This May's elections are expected to deliver a decisive victory for the SNP in Scotland. The analysis warns that London must prepare a sympathetic response or risk a Catalan-style crisis. Brexit is identified as a key trigger for the current tensions, with the UK's departure from the EU exacerbating Anglo-Scottish divisions.
Scottish independence, if it occurs, would likely be a difficult process, but the comparison with Brexit suggests the UK should be better prepared for such an outcome.
