Keir Starmer now faces a battle for survival as Makerfield by-election polls close. The battle to sack Keir Starmer begins in earnest, writes Jonathan Walker, Whitehall Editor.
The battle for Makerfield is over. The battle for Britain has begun. Andy Burnham's team has been organising two campaigns. In public, the focus was his attempt to win the Makerfield by-election, allowing him to return to Parliament as an MP. Mr Burnham is about to discover whether those efforts were successful, as the Makerfield result is set to be announced. But the second campaign was about deposing Keir Starmer.
Mr Burnham does not want to return to Westminster as a humble backbench MP, or even as a Cabinet Minister in Sir Keir's government. He wants to be Prime Minister. And so does Wes Streeting, the former Labour health secretary who also fancies a pop at the party leadership. It means Sir Keir is certain to face a challenge from someone, whatever the result in Makerfield.
For Team Burnham, the goal has been to encourage the Prime Minister to leave quietly, without putting up a fight. The last thing Andy Burnham wants is a head-to-head battle with Sir Keir in a Labour leadership contest. That would mean travelling the country, attending hustings and telling activists why the sitting leader, and Labour Prime Minister, was no good.
Instead, his plan involves giving Sir Keir time to think about the by-election result and what it really means. Then, Mr Burnham will speak to the Prime Minister and attempt to negotiate a timetable allowing Sir Keir to resign with dignity. Finally, if the Prime Minister digs in his heels and refuses to quit, more government ministers would either privately urge Sir Keir to go, or pile on the pressure by resigning.
But there was to be no respite for Sir Keir even if Mr Burnham lost the by-election. In this scenario, Mr Streeting would become the main challenger. Wes Streeting has fewer qualms about taking on Sir Keir in a full-blown Labour leadership contest. However, Sir Keir's supporters believed they could win this one, whereas a fight against Andy Burnham was more likely to end in defeat for the sitting Prime Minister.
The bad news for any challenger to the throne is that Keir Starmer is determined not to go quietly. This became clear in recent days, as the Prime Minister began preparing traps for Andy Burnham. For example, Sir Keir suggested Labour needed to fight and win the Greater Manchester Mayoral election before doing anything else. This would buy him some time. More importantly, if Labour lost an election in Greater Manchester prompted by Mr Burnham's choice to stand in Makerfield, Mr Burnham would get the blame.
Sir Keir also hinted that Mr Burnham could be offered a Cabinet post. He has been behaving like a man who genuinely intends to remain in Number 10, unless someone manages to drag him out kicking and screaming. Now is when those efforts to boot Sir Keir out begin in earnest.
