A new poll by Savanta UK for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London indicates that Sir Sadiq Khan is strongly positioned to win a fourth term as Mayor of London. The survey places Labour's candidate at 33%, with the Conservatives and Reform UK tied at 18% each, the Green Party at 17%, Liberal Democrats at 9%, and other candidates at 6%.
Khan's Lead and Second Preference Votes
The poll suggests that Labour would be heavily favoured to win the mayoral election after second preference votes are transferred. Despite a national decline in Labour's popularity under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Right-leaning voting bloc in London remains significantly smaller than the Left-leaning bloc. Combining Labour (33%) and Green (17%) votes totals 50%, while the Conservatives and Reform together reach only 36%. The Liberal Democrat vote (9%) could split between the Right and Left.
Fragmentation of Politics and Historical Context
Voting patterns have shifted from the traditional two-party system, with fragmentation in British politics. The Conservatives have previously found success with candidates like Boris Johnson, who appealed to the liberal wing of the party, and Zac Goldsmith, who had environmental credentials but lost in 2016 after a campaign focused on attacking Khan. Shaun Bailey might have run closer in 2021 with full party backing.
Potential Candidates and Scenarios
Sir James Cleverly, former London Assembly member and ex-Home Secretary, has emerged as an early frontrunner for the Tory candidacy in 2028. However, it remains unclear if he can attract Labour voters, unlike a business figure or former minister like Rory Stewart. The final run-off could see Labour against the Green Party, which surged in London during the May local elections, or against Reform UK, which has already selected Laila Cunningham as its candidate. Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL, told The Standard: "We don't know who the Tories or Greens will stand but if one of them stands someone strong then it could become interesting. Labour's lead isn't huge and is well south of 50% so a strong candidate could make inroads."
Outlook
Ultimately, the race appears to be Khan's to win or lose, barring a strong challenger who can bridge the political divide. The poll was conducted online with 1,038 adult Londoners between June 30 and July 8, with data weighted to be representative.
