Support for Reform UK could plateau near its current levels as the party increasingly depends on socially conservative views held by a minority of voters, according to a major study led by psephologist John Curtice. The research, part of the British Social Attitudes report, found that while Reform supporters are disproportionately unhappy with politicians and public services, recent recruits are driven more by ideology than discontent.
The study, which surveyed over 4,600 people across the UK, revealed that Reform supporters are more likely to be older, male, and have fewer qualifications. Only 9% of graduates back the party, compared to 40% of those with qualifications below A-level. A striking 67% of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy, and 75% think they undermine UK culture—more than double the national averages.
On social issues, 88% of Reform backers say equal opportunities for transgender people have 'gone too far', versus 48% nationally. Similarly, 52% say the same about lesbian, gay, and bisexual people, and 51% about black and Asian people, compared to 27% and 17% nationally. People who are both authoritarian and dissatisfied are particularly likely to back Reform, with support rising to 46% in this group.
Curtice suggested that while 30% might not be an absolute ceiling, the party is unlikely to rise much above that given its current strategy. However, he noted that under the first-past-the-post system, this could still be enough to win a general election. He also argued that improving public services alone, as Keir Starmer has suggested, would be unlikely to stop Reform's rise due to the sharp ideological distinctiveness of its supporters.
