The Makerfield by-election is taking place this week, with polls opening at 7am on Thursday, June 18. Here are the latest polls and odds for the Greater Manchester seat.
Background
The by-election follows the sudden resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons on May 14. Simons stepped down to make way for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to stand for election. Simons' resignation came after mounting demands for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to resign, with Burnham expected to launch a leadership challenge if elected. The outcome could shape UK politics for years.
Candidates
There are 14 candidates, including frontrunner Andy Burnham (Labour) and Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon. Others include Sarah Wakefield (Green Party), Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats), Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain), Rob Pownall (Independent), and Count Binface (Count Binface Party).
Controversy
The campaign has been controversial. TV personality Carol Vorderman urged women not to vote for Kenyon after old social media posts resurfaced showing a pattern of nasty posts about women. Reform remained unapologetic. Leader Nigel Farage said the comments were from a decade ago and taken out of context, adding that Kenyon is an ordinary bloke who said laddish things.
Latest Polls
An Opinium poll conducted June 3-11 shows Labour's Andy Burnham leading with 46%, followed by Reform's Rob Kenyon with 41%. Restore Britain is at 7%, Conservatives 3%, Greens 2%, and Liberal Democrats 1%. The five-point gap is within the margin of error, making the race highly competitive. The poll of 543 voters used mixed online and face-to-face methodology.
Odds
Betting odds as of 6pm on Wednesday, June 17:
- Bet365: Labour 1/9, Reform 5/1, Restore Britain 20/1
- William Hill: Labour 1/7, Reform 9/2, Restore Britain 18/5
- Betfred: Labour 1/6, Reform 18/5, Restore Britain 20/1
- Ladbrokes: Labour 1/7, Reform 11/2, Restore Britain 20/1
Polls open from 7am to 10pm on Thursday, June 18.
