Viktor Orbán's crushing defeat in last month's Hungarian election has sparked democratic optimism, but experts caution against drawing broad conclusions about far-right decline. While the loss of Orbán holds symbolic significance and impacts EU politics, particularly the EU-Ukraine deal, three key reasons suggest the far right remains resilient.
Orbán's Defeat: Context Matters
Orbán's 16-year tenure allowed him to reshape Hungary politically, economically, and socially. His defeat stemmed not from rejection of far-right policies—anti-immigration stances remain popular with incoming Prime Minister Petér Magyar—but from dire economic conditions and corruption allegations. Magyar's victory resulted from tireless campaigning in strategic constituencies under a disproportional electoral system, a strategy that may not translate to proportional systems like the Netherlands.
Far Right Still Strong Across Europe
Despite losing its unofficial leader, the European far right is not in decline. Parties remain in government in Czechia and Italy, and lead polls in Austria and France. The mainstreaming of far-right ideas continues, with the European People's Party collaborating on legislation and adopting far-right skepticism on climate issues. Giorgia Meloni's Italy has become a pilgrimage site for politicians seeking tough-on-immigration credentials.
Trump's Dual Role
While Donald Trump is currently "toxic" for European far-right parties due to threats on Greenland, NATO, and trade, his influence fluctuates. When focusing on anti-establishment or immigration themes, his star rises. His presidency normalizes extreme rhetoric, and European far-right leaders appear moderate by comparison. Meloni's distancing from Trump is strategic and temporary, not ideological.
Celebrating Orbán's ousting is warranted, but generalizing risks undermining future democratic victories. Understanding the nuances of far-right resilience is crucial for sustaining democratic progress.
