Polls have closed in the Makerfield byelection, a contest that could reshape the future of UK politics. The result in this north-west England constituency, along with Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, is poised to have significant implications for the Labour Party and the broader political landscape.
Burnham's Bid for Westminster
Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, resigned from his post to contest the Makerfield seat. His goal is not only to return to Parliament but also to position himself as a challenger to Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party. The byelection was triggered after MP Josh Simons stepped down to allow Burnham a path back to Westminster, following Labour's poor performance in local elections.
A Tight Race
The contest has been a head-to-head between Burnham, a former cabinet minister, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a local plumber. Kenyon's campaign faced setbacks due to controversial social media posts, including sexist comments about Carol Vorderman. Despite these issues, Reform UK has gained ground in Makerfield, a historically safe Labour seat that has shifted rightwards in recent years.
In the last general election, Simons won with 45.2% of the vote, but Reform UK increased its share by 18%. Local election results showed Reform UK taking 50.4% of the vote in eight Makerfield wards. Pre-election polls gave Burnham a lead of three to 12 percentage points over Kenyon, though the presence of the hard-right Restore Britain party, predicted to win about 7%, could split the right-wing vote.
Implications for Starmer
If Burnham wins, attention will turn to his next steps. Starmer has indicated he would offer Burnham a "big" role in government, but Burnham's allies suggest he is not interested in a subordinate position. They hope for a "coronation" where Starmer steps aside, though the prime minister has repeatedly stated he has no intention of resigning. Some ministers have reportedly been dissuaded from resigning to avoid chaos in the government.
Other Byelections
In Aberdeen South, the future of North Sea oil and gas dominated the campaign, with the Conservatives aiming to take the seat from the SNP. Meanwhile, the SNP is confident of holding Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
